The Typhoon Comprehensive Economic Losses Based On CGE Model

Climate warming leads to increased frequency of natural disasters such as tropical cyclones and typhoons. Currently, with the increase in the degree of association between socio-economic systems, the related losses caused by meteorological disasters to the whole society are becoming more and more serious.Scientific and reasonable assessment of meteorological disasters on the associated regional and industrial sectors ofScientific and reasonable disaster economic loss assessment on the associated regional and industrial sectors, and can be based on the assessment results targeted to take defense measures, has become key issues to the government departments,disaster prevention departments, industry sectors and the public.This paper selected the Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) Model as a tool to assess the economic losses associated with the disaster, constructed Guangdong CGE model, and compiled the social accounting matrix (SAM) of Guangdong Province in 2012. Then, this paper chooses the Super Typhoon Haima of Guangdong in 2016 as a typical case to analyze the macroeconomic effect and the influence on sectors by the meteorological disaster. And, from the perspective of the disaster emergency management, this paper mainly discussed the problem of fragmentation. The main conclusions are:(1) From the perspective of industry structure, the occurrence of typhoon disasters has a greater impact on the total outputs,and the impact on the extractive industry and the service industry are more profound. The characteristics of extractive industrial structure determine the higher requirements of personnel configuration and geological structure. The shutdown of mineral enterprises and the need to replace damage due to the disaster have brought greater economic losses to the department.Typhoon's impact on the service sector is also significant, mainly because the wholesale and retail trade and other service industries are generally small scale,consumption and trade links are greatly influenced by the weather, so the short-term impact caused by disaster is also higher.(2) From the perspective of influence on sectors, the occurrence of typhoon has stimulated the rise in employment rates. Typhoon disasters have had a tremendous impact on departmental operations. To compensate for the economic losses caused by disasters, departments need to absorb more labor to promote production.(3) From the macro level, in addition to the residents of the total consumption,investment that will increase in the short term, the rest of the macroeconomic variables have all reduced, for example, the total investment caused 1.4022% rise,from 228.73 billion RAM to 2319.371 billion RAM.(4) From the point of the economic subject,this paper set up resident,enterprise,government as demand departments. For residents, the disaster has a positive impact on the income and consumption due to the improvement of the employment rate.The disaster has affected the production activities of enterprise seriously, so the economic losses cannot be underestimated. The government will be the most affected,for government play a role in the decision to intervene and regulate the economy, so the emergence of disasters brought about by the reduction of government revenue and savings.(5) According to the previous research, for the given serious influence of the economy and many departments of government, so the government should be coordinated to defense disaster, in order to reduce fragmentation phenomenon in disaster management, this paper also put forward the corresponding countermeasures and suggestions.Finally, this paper puts forward some policy suggestions based on the simulation results and puts forward some improvements. The research ideas and methods of this paper can provide reference for the study of the loss assessment of typhoon disaster. The results can also provide evidence support for government departments, disaster prevention departments and industry management departments to formulate disaster prevention and mitigation measures, carry out disaster emergency and disaster recovery and reconstruction work.