Research On The Analysis Of Carbon Allowance Auctioning’s Pass-through Effect On The Abatement Cost Of The Electric Power Generation Sector

China’s economy has entered a period of new normal,which brings both opportunities and challenges for the development.The growing complexity of economic activities and economic behavior makes the assets appraisal particularly important.In economic activities such as transaction in assets and property rights transaction,it is very importment to engage an independent third-party to comment on the value of assets and rights professionally.In the era of promoting innovation-driven development,the market gives new connotations and far more weight to the assets appraisal.So we need to extend the extension of assets appraisal,and innovate the evaluation system of different fields,allowing assets valuation industry to better adapt to the developing demand of marketing economy.With the gradual increase of greenhouse gas emissions in recent years,the issue of global warming gets widespread attention all over the world.Carbon trading pilots in China started one after another during 2013 to 2015,successful startup of the pilots is the starting point of national carbon trading market construction.Being the main participant in the seven pilots of carbon emission trading in China,the electric power sector emits 50% of the national CO2 emissions,ranking top compared with other industries.The construction and development of the carbon trade market will inevitable greatly impact the power generation industry with high carbon risk.This paper will,from the angle of systematic science,by focusing on the important scientific problems faced by China’s carbon trade market and power generation sector and flexible utilizing system dynamics,decision-making and optimization theory,carry out the quantitative research of the impact of auctioning rate on the abatement cost of electricity sector in the national trading market.First,employing Trans-log Production Function to estimation of the carbon emission allowance price(shadow price)under different auctioning rates.Second,this paper estimates the optimal structure of China’s electric power sector,step 1:estimation of the optimal power source structure of China’s electric power sector.Power source structure refers to the share of coal-fired power,hydropower,wind power,nuclear power,solar power and biomass in the power sector.Dynamic simulation model is used in this step;step 2:estimation of the optimal technological structure of coal-fired thermal power generation,Multi-objective linear programming is employed in this step.At last,this paper calculates total abatement cost and the marginal abatement cost of electricity generation sector.The results show that when the allowance auction rate is 5%,the marginal abatement costs for coal-fired power generation and clean power generation are 0.123 Yuan/kwh and 0.121 Yuan/kwh respectively,and thus,the total additional cost of the electric power generation sector will increase by 0.244 Yuan/kwh,which would be a heavy burden to China’s electric power generation sector and the forward progress of auctioning in the near future may be hindered.This paper aims to support policy decision making for the launching of integrated carbon market in 2017 and construction of scientific and effective national carbon market.