Study On The Risk Of Natural Gas Import In China

Since China began to import natural gas in 2006,the demand for natural gas imports has further increased,and in 2018 it surpassed Japan to become the world's largest importer of natural gas,with an external dependence of more than 45%.As the requirements for the transition of low-carbon economy continue to increase,China,as a major natural gas importer and consumer,will become increasingly dependent on natural gas imports.As the scale of natural gas imports continues to expand and external dependence continues to grow,the risk of natural gas imports increases.Risk factors from natural gas import sources and transportation routes,such as resources,economy,geopolitics,etc.,can lead to disruption of natural gas supply,thereby increasing the risk of natural gas imports.In this context,this paper studies the risks of the main sources of natural gas in China,and uses the portfolio theory to analyze the natural gas import risk index.Mainly related to the following two aspects:Firstly,it analyzes the import status of pipeline natural gas import sources(Central Asia,Myanmar,Russia)and LNG import sources(Australia and Qatar),as well as the status of pipeline natural gas and LNG transportation routes,and secondly analyzes the factors affecting China's natural gas import risks.Two aspects,one is the risk of import source,and the other is the risk factor of import route.The risk of import source is mainly divided into resource potential,economic risk and political risk factor;the risk factors of import route are divided into transportation route risk,geopolitical factor analysis,influence of Chinese military forces on the route and carrier risk.Secondly,based on the EG cointegration test,explore the relationship between China's natural gas import price and Japan's natural gas price,and use the portfolio theory to establish a natural gas import risk index model to evaluate the systemic risks and special risks of China's natural gas imports.Research shows that the import risk of natural gas in China is on the rise from 2010 to 2017,and the special risk of natural gas imports is higher than the systemic risk.The research in this paper has certain reference significance for adjusting the natural gas import strategy.