Study On Risk Sharing Mechanism Of Product Oil Pipeline PPP Project In Cameroon

With the continuous deepening of the national development strategy of "One Belt and One Road" and "going global",the market of China's external contracting projects is developing rapidly,involving more and more business scope and project scale,and the degree of marketization and specialization is getting higher and higher.However,the traditional international engineering contract market is undergoing changes quietly.On the one hand,under the international economic background of the downward pressure of the international economy and the rise of global trade protectionism,the transformation and upgrading of international engineering contractor enterprises and the initiative for change and cooperation and innovation have become the top priority.On the other hand is the emerging developing countries although there is a huge gap in infrastructure,but generally lack face resources such as capital,technology,talent problem,the traditional EPC project gradually atrophic,with EPC + F,the PPP financing of BOT,BOOT and other new business cooperation mode gradually favored by the host country.However,our country enterprise operation pattern is unfamiliar for new type of PPP project,how to reasonable share the characteristics of PPP project risks involved become the biggest challenge for Chinese enterprises to invest in overseas projects.According to the existing literature,most studies focus on the identification and evaluation of risks involved in PPP mode,while less on the mechanism of risk sharing.This article takes the Cameroon product oil pipeline PPP project as an example,and uses qualitative research methods as the basis,and combines some mathematical analysis methods used in quantitative research.First,it analyzes the risk system involved in the project,including risk sources,characteristics,and identification And structured adjustments to identified risks.Secondly,the basic principle of risk allocation based on "economic optimality" was established,and the overall model of project risk sharing(RS model)was built.Based on this model,Monte Carlo simulation method was introduced to the probability and cause of major project risks.Losses were measured and a quantified summary model of project risks was formed.Then,the moment allocation method is used to determine the respective risk sharing coefficients of the government and the social capital side.After analyzing the obtainability of specific risks and fully considering the cost of the optimization measures,a preliminary project quantitative risk sharing plan is finally obtained.Finally,based on the risk tolerance of the project company,the preliminary risk sharing scheme is tested through three dimensions of risk reserve,net cash flow and shareholder equity to determine whether the project company has the ability to cover the shared risk costs.If the test fails,it means that the project company is unable to bear the shared risks,and this risk sharing scheme is not feasible,and the allocation needs to be readjusted.If the test passes,it means that the risk sharing scheme is more scientific and in line with the principle of "economic best",and the scheme is confirmed as the final risk sharing scheme.