Research On The Synergistic Path Of Carbon Emission Reduction And High-quality Economic Growth

In the past half century,global temperature has increased sharply,greenhouse gas emissions have led to sea level rise and extreme weather frequency,and the international community has paid more attention to the reduction of greenhouse gases,especially carbon dioxide.From the Kyoto Protocol to the Paris Agreement,dozens of countries including China have made their commitments and efforts under the United Nations Convention on Climate Change.It is urgent to curb global warming.As the world’s largest source of greenhouse gas emissions,China has set the goal of achieving carbon neutrality by 2060 by peaking its carbon emissions by 2030 and cutting carbon dioxide emissions per unit of GDP by more than 65 percent from 2005 levels.It is of great practical and policy reference significance for China and even the world to study the influencing factors and emission reduction path of China’s carbon emissions.There are many factors that affect carbon dioxide emission,but most of the existing literature focuses on one or several factors and their influence.Relatively,its conclusion has some limitations.Therefore,the random forest algorithm in machine learning is introduced in this paper.Economic development,energy,technology,international trade and other factors included in mainstream literature are included in the empirical analysis to identify the main factors affecting China’s carbon emissions.At the national level,the three most important factors affecting China’s carbon intensity are energy intensity,foreign direct investment and energy structure.At the same time,based on the decomposition of the IPAT equation,the basic conditions for achieving the peak of carbon emissions are demonstrated.Based on this,the scenario analysis is carried out in combination with the socio-economic contribution path developed by the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change,and the possibility of China achieving the peak of carbon emissions before 2030 and the reduction of carbon intensity by 65% is explored.The empirical results show that it is possible to achieve both a peak in total carbon emissions by 2030 and a 65% reduction in carbon intensity relative to 2005 in the nationally determined contribution goals.In addition,in view of the differences in economic and social development and resource endowment among different regions in China,this paper also analyzes the regional heterogeneity of carbon emissions influencing factors between coastal and inland areas,east,central and western regions,north and south of China.Based on the emission reduction targets set by each province independently,the possibility of each province to achieve the carbon emission reduction targets is analyzed.On the basis of empirical analysis,this paper also provides some concrete ideas for future carbon emission reduction policies.In the future,China should further promote the development of renewable energy in China;And improve energy efficiency;On the basis of actively introducing foreign investment and absorbing foreign advanced technology,we will set stricter environmental access rules for foreign investment,and control the inflow of foreign investment into industries with high energy consumption and high pollution.For each region,it also puts forward more specific and different carbon emission reduction policies to promote the coordinated development of the national carbon emission reduction process.