Research On Urban Public Safety & Security Assessment Method Based On Comprehensive Risk Management Concept

With the advancement of urbanization,the urban operation system becomes more and more complex,the superposition effect of risk coupling becomes more and more prominent,and the urban public safety & security faces severe challenges.Therefore,it is of great significance to promote the sustainable development of urban safety & security to conduct an in-depth analysis of the interaction between urban public safety & security risks and emergency capacity based on comprehensive risk management concept,and to comprehensively evaluate urban public safety & security from the perspective of the whole disaster,the whole process and all aspects.The main research contents of this dissertation include:(1)Study on urban public safety & security system based on the comprehensive risk management concept.Guided by the concept of comprehensive risk management,the definition and connotation of urban public safety & security are clarified.The architecture of urban public safety & security system is constructed,which is composed of four main bodies,such as disaster elements,hazard events,risk management and disaster bearing body,and the analysis elements of urban public safety & security are determined.The urban public safety & security assessment thought of "comprehensive screening,key analysis and comprehensive evaluation" is proposed,which combines the comprehensive risk assessment with the in-depth emergency capacity assessment,and provided a theoretical basis for the construction of a comprehensive,wholeprocess and all-around urban public safety & security assessment method system.(2)Study on compound risk assessment model based on coupling effect of multiple disasters.Aiming at specific risk events,the formation principle of compound risk under the coupling action of multiple disasters is clarified.Based on the logical relationship among risk assessment elements such as risk,vulnerability and risk prevention and control ability,the existing risk assessment model and residual risk assessment model are constructed by introducing the risk enhancement coefficient representing the coupling effect of multiple disasters.The index,index quantification method and grading evaluation standard of risk assessment elements are determined for the county and district level urban areas,so as to achieve more accurate quantification of the compound risk under the coupling of multiple disasters.(3)Study on emergency capacity assessment model based on dynamic evolution process and evolution results of emergent events.Aiming at specific emergencies,the construction ideas of emergency capacity assessment model are analyzed from two aspects of dynamic evolution process and evolution results of emergencies.Based on the logical correlation of the emergency capacity of each stage in the evolution process of emergency,the overall emergency capacity assessment model is constructed.Aiming at the emergency response capacity and emergency disposal capacity in the dynamic development stage of emergency,quantitative models of the phase emergency capacity based on the dynamic evolution results of emergency are established.In order to realize the accurate and quantitative evaluation of the emergency capacity,the index,index quantification method and grading evaluation standard of the emergency capacity evaluation elements were determined for the counties and districts.(4)Study on urban public safety & security assessment process and application based on compound risk and emergency capacity.Guided by the overall idea of urban public safety &security assessment,through the existing risk analysis and scenario construction,the compound risk assessment and emergency capacity assessment are effectively linked,forming the urban public safety & security assessment process composed of compound risk assessment,emergency capacity assessment and urban public safety & security level assessment.The method system of urban public safety & security assessment,which consists of assessment model,assessment index and assessment process,is applied to an urban area in China,and the operability and guidance of the method system are demonstrated.