Study On Spatial-temporal Changes And Multi-scenarios Prediction Of Liaoning Coastal Ecosystem Service Value Base On Land Use

The coastal zone is economically and socially developed,bringing together 60%of the world’s population.It is an important part of the emerging marine economy,and it is also a key zone for economic and social development and a fragile ecological environment.Estimation of coastal ecosystem service value can provide decision support for coastal development activities and is of great significance to the sustainable use of marine resources.However,there are relatively few existing studies on the evaluation of coastal ecosystem services,the land-use patterns and changes in coastal areas are not very clear,and the complex relationship between ecosystem services and natural and social factors has not yet been revealed.In addition,the existing research mostly focuses on the research on the spatial and temporal characteristics of the"past-present"ecosystem service value,but there is a lack of discussion on different future development trends and optimization of land spatial patterns.Therefore,it is extremely important to comprehensively estimate the temporal and spatial changes of Liaoning coastal ecosystem service value,reveal the driving factors and mechanisms of ecosystem service value,and explore ecosystem services under different future scenarios.which is significance to the construction of a new protection pattern in coastal areas.Taking the coastal zone of Liaoning as an example,this study aims to explore the response mechanism and multi-scenario prediction of ecosystem service value under land-use change.The research status,thematic hotspots and evolution trends in the field of marine ecosystem service value were analyzed;the changes in Liaoning coastal ecosystem service value in the past 20 years were comprehensively estimated,and the driving factors and mechanisms of ecosystem service value were explored.At the same time,the response of future land-use changes and its ecosystem service value in the Liaoning coastal zone from a multi-scenario perspective was simulated.The main results of this paper are as follows:（1）From 2000 to 2020,the land use types in the Liaoning coastal zone showed a sharp decline in the area of cultivated land（decrease 81940.14 hm~2,-23.30%）and other lands（decrease 72350.01 hm~2,-20.57%）,and construction land（increase 157586.31hm~2,44.81%）.rapidly increasing features.In the past 20 years,the value of ecosystem services showed a trend of first increasing and then decreasing,from 123.36 billion yuan in 2000 to 131.57 billion yuan in 2010 and then down to 123.50 billion yuan in2020.The largest contribution to ESV is hydrological regulation（81.17 billion yuan,65.79%）.（2）The changes in Liaoning coastal ecosystem service value in the past 20 years are mainly attributable to changes in water bodies and wetlands.The water body contributes the most to the service value of the Liaoning coastal zone ecosystem,providing 72.23%of the ecosystem service value of the Liaoning coastal zone with about 13.25%of the area.The cultivated land in the Liaoning coastal zone accounts for as high as 49.24%,providing only about 8.56%of the ecosystem service value of the entire study area.（3）In addition,there was a significant spatial agglomeration effect in the distribution of ecosystem service value in the Liaoning coastal zone from 2000 to 2020,and the hot and cold spots presented an alternate spatial pattern.The hot spots are gradually broken with the time.The spatial distribution pattern of ecosystem service value in the Liaoning coastal zone is affected by both natural conditions and human disturbance,and there is a strong synergistic effect among the driving factors.Natural environment conditions constitute the basic spatial pattern of ecosystem service value,and human factors are the main reason for the fragmentation of hotspots.（4）The land-use types of the Liaoning coastal zone under the 2050 ESV scenario and the ecological capacity scenario are mainly water（518,665.90 hm~2,37.30%）.Under the economic scenario,construction land（489881.89 hm~2）,water body（347909.51 hm~2）and cultivated land（313406.37 hm~2）are relatively large,accounting for more than 22%.Overall,compared with the baseline scenario（89.14 billion yuan）,the value of ecosystem services in the 2050 economic scenario（212.72 billion yuan）has increased significantly,but it is still lower than the ESV scenario（312.75 billion yuan）and ecological capacity scenario（311.48 billion yuan）.（5）The main driving factors for the expansion of different land use are different.The expansion of construction land,cultivated land and water bodies in the Liaoning coastal zone is mainly affected by natural and social factors such as GDP,population density,annual average temperature,annual average precipitation,slope and DEM.Forest expansion mainly depends on the constraints of natural environment conditions,and its driving factors are mainly slope,DEM,annual average temperature,annual average precipitation and NDVI.Therefore,in the process of land use development in the coastal zone,we should focus on considering the driving effects of different factors on the expansion of different land uses,comprehensively assess the contribution of human and natural factors to the expansion of different land uses,and deeply explore the relationship between land change and ecosystem service value.synergy mechanism.