| In recent years,with the acceleration of urbanization and industrialization,people’s demand for land resources has increased,which is manifested in the occupation of cultivated land and ecological land,and finally aggravate the contradiction between man and land.This has triggered a series of ecological problems such as Rocky Desertification and soil erosion,and even caused the imbalance of land spatial pattern such as the disorderly expansion of urban construction land,the scarcity of high-quality cultivated land and the aggravation of Ecological Environment Fragility,which has affected the regional land spatial pattern and coordinated and sustainable development.How to alleviate the conflict between multi-functional spaces has become one of the urgent problems to be solved.This paper takes Guanling City,which is located in karst mountainous area,as the research area.According to the leading and secondary functions of land use,the land use space of Guanling City in 2010,2015 and 2019 is divided into living production,production ecology,ecological production and ecological space.Based on the mathematical models such as spatial analysis function and transfer model of Arc GIS,this paper studies the spatial status,spatial distribution characteristics and dynamic changes of "Production-living-ecological" in Guanling City.Based on this,the spatial conflict measurement model of "Production-living-ecological" is established according to the landscape ecological index,and the spatial conflict intensity and evolution of "Production-living-ecological" in Guanling City in 2010,2015 and 2019 are analyzed.Finally,the spatial layout of "Production-living-ecological" in Guanling City in 2024 is predicted and optimized by using relevant mathematical models such as Ca-Markov prediction model,spatial conflict measurement model and multi-disciplinary conflict pattern determination technology,The spatial pattern and conflict evolution of "Production-living-ecological" are analyzed.The main research conclusions are as follows:（1）From 2010 to 2019,the ecological space of Guanling City accounted for the largest proportion of the "Production-living-ecological" space,43.72%,43.05% and 42.61% respectively,followed by the production ecological space,28.79%,28.88% and 29.06% respectively.The ecological production space was relatively stable,and the proportion of living and production space was the lowest.From the perspective of spatial distribution,the ecological space is relatively concentrated in the West and southeast of the county.The living and production space is mainly concentrated in Guansuo town and Dingyun Township,while the production ecological space is concentrated in Xinpu Township,Guansuo town and Dingyun Township,while the ecological production space is distributed in Yongning Town,Bangui Township and Baishui town.From the perspective of spatial dynamic change,it is mainly from production ecology,ecological production and ecological space to living production space,while production ecological space is mainly supplemented by ecological space.From the perspective of different karst landforms,pure karst landforms are mainly ecological space,while sub karst landforms and non karst landforms are mainly productive ecological space.（2）From 2010 to 2019,the spatial conflict intensity of "Production-living-ecological" in Guanling City showed an increasing trend,the proportion of basically out of control and seriously out of control conflict intensity units gradually increased,and the conflict level in the county gradually dominated by basically out of control.The seriously out of control conflict units mainly gather in Guansuo town and Huajiang Town,and are mainly distributed near the living and production space,and the degree of aggregation gradually increases with the development of time;Basically uncontrollable conflicts are mainly clustered and distributed in Bangui Township,Guansuo Town,Huajiang Town,Xinpu Township and Yongning Town.Basically controllable conflicts are mainly distributed in Huajiang Town,the south of Xinpu Township and the north of Puli township.Stable and controllable conflicts are mainly distributed at the county boundary,especially in Gangwu town.From the perspective of the conflict intensity of different karst landforms,the "three generation" spatial conflict under different geomorphic conditions has obvious characteristics of temporal and spatial differentiation,which is specifically reflected in that although the spatial types under various geomorphic conditions are mainly basically controllable and basically out of control conflict,the conflict intensity has the characteristics of pure karst landform > non karst landform > sub karst landform.（3）In 2024,in the "Production-living-ecological" spatial simulation pattern,the area change mainly shows that the area of living and production space and ecological production space is increasing,while the proportion of production ecological space and ecological space is decreasing.In terms of the change of spatial conflict intensity,the spatial conflict intensity in Guanling City in 2024 is still dominated by basically out of control conflicts,but the overall conflict intensity in Guanling City has increased significantly,and the basically out of control spatial conflicts are in a surface shape,mainly forming three basically out of control conflict concentration zones in Guansuo town Dingyun Township Duanqiao Town,Shaying Township Yongning Town Puli Township and Huajiang town Bangui township.The seriously out of control conflicts are mainly distributed in the urban area of Guansuo town Dingyun Township and Huajiang town.In terms of planning conflict,there are conflicts between different plans.At the same time,there are also conflicts between planning and actual utilization.（4）After optimization,the aggregation degree of living and production space in regional space is significantly improved,and the proportion of ecological production space is increased;In 2024,the intensity of spatial conflict in Guanling City is still dominated by basically out of control conflict,but the proportion of stable and basically controllable conflict units increases,the proportion of serious out of control conflict units decreases,the intensity of spatial conflict in the whole region decreases,and the stability and coordination of space utilization are improved.The land use structure and pattern under different karst landforms have been adjusted to a certain extent.Although the living and production,production ecological,ecological production and ecological space are still dominated by basically controllable and basically out of control conflicts,the proportion of stable and controllable conflicts increases,the proportion of serious controllable conflicts decreases,and the conflict intensity of each landform decreases. |
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