| The medical industry has kept a high speed of development for years with the economic development, the population increase, the aged society coming into being, more needs for health and the improvement of science and technology. It's now called "the sun rise industry" and is regarded as won't wither forever. Governments, enterprises and investors around the globe pay much attention to medical industry and a lot of researches have been done on the industry's development characteristics and rules. Many valuable findings have also been arrived at. But the scholars outside China always focus on the theoretical analysis of the general rule of this industry's development. The scholars of China always do some descriptive analysis of the industry's situation and characteristics in China. Based on this situation, with the understandings of the industry's general rule and the basic realities of China's economy, society and politics, this thesis aims at finding the growth rule, growth path and future vision of China's medical industry and providing advices to government's industry policies and enterprises' investment decisions.Based on large amounts of time series data and cross section data of many countries and areas, I discussed the medical industry's present situation, development process and operational track. I also studied the intrinsic reason and nature of the keen competition in medical market. The development of medical industry has a nature of steadily high speed and follows the development of economy. I studied the impact of market demand, market supply and policy framework on medical industry growth by correlation and regressive analysis.Under the general characteristics and laws of medical industry, I take China's medical industry (medical manufacturing industry as the main point) as an example and analyze the intrinsic reason and basic features of its growth. After rough process, the medical industry of China got through the introductive period and has entered a period of high speed development which is typically characterized by fast growth and low profit. In the next couple of years, it will still keep a tendency of steady growth. However, the enterprises and products in China's medical industry are not so competitive. Over competition within the industry and inability of innovation havebeen its two bottlenecks.I studied the intrinsic reasons of this industry's growth in China and found that capital plays an obviously important role while at the same time industrial factors such as labor force and technology together with capital promote the development of this industry. I also studied the motive mechanism and the industrial cluster mechanism of China's medical industry. The entrepreneurs are driven by benefit and they enter in or withdraw from the industry, expand or shrink their enterprises according to the profit maximization principle. Medical industrial parks play an important role in promoting the development of the industry and local economy. But the unhealthiness of marketing economy resulted in the distortion of the motive mechanism of the industry's growth and has been the main reason of the industry's poor achievements and disorderly competition.I combine the positive and normative researches, take the step of analysis first and integration later and analyze the impact of macro factors on the industry's growth. I got the conclusion that GDP, domestic income, health spending and medical companies' efficiency are the main reasons among many ones to explain China's medical industry development.Multi variable regressive analysis and factor analysis can give quite accurate predictive result of China's medical industry growth. In the next couple of years, China's medical industry will have a steady and high-speed development with the increasing rate of about 16-18% annually, which is not only far ahead of the growth rate of GDP and domestic income but also that of the total expanse on health. The fast development of China's medical industry can be expected.
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