Analysis Of The Factors That Caused Technological Disasters And The Research Of The Risk Assessment System Of Technological Disasters

Modern science and technology promoted the development of industry greatly.Technological disasters caused by people led to huge loss of life and economy. Dataprovided by State Administration of Work Safety shows: various technological disasterscaused the lives loss of ten thousand and the enormous economy losses every year.Because of the interaction between mankind and modern science and technology,technological disasters management and prevention becomes a very important issueneeds to study and address.The systematic research on technological disasters is a new field. This thesis isaimed at a systematic study of the laws of gestation, occurrence and damage oftechnological disasters to ensure safe production, setting up a risk assessmentmanagement system of technological disasters. The purpose of the thesis is to provide aguide to enterprises, government departments. If they are possessed of the power oftechnological disasters management, many technological disasters will be under control.The loss of technological disasters will be in a decrease as much as possible. With thedevelopment of new type industrialization, people will work under healthy, safeconditions.The thesis analyses the history and the present situation of technological disastersresearch and management, investigates the policies, laws of government and therelevant management rules and regulations of enterprises, expatiates the term"technological disasters" systematically, analyses the differences between technologicaldisasters and natural disasters, finds the truths and features of grave disasters byanalyzing the classic cases, gives the classified plan of safe production accidents. Basedon the above analysis and investigations, the factors that caused technological disasters,the basal definition, manifestation, category and characteristic of technological disasterare determined.Using statistical fundamental principles and methods and the theory that causedtechnological disasters, the writer analyses 70 classic cases of technological disasters based on the following factors: conditions and unsafe behaviors which causedtechnological disasters, The writer has evolved the factors that caused technologicaldisasters which involve management, people, things and environment, and managementis the leading factor. The writer has also calculated the basal proportion of every factor.Using the elemental principles and methods of risk assessment, the writer has set uprisk assessing indicator system based on the analysis, induction of the factors thatcaused technological disasters. The 1st grade system consists of the factors that causedtechnological disasters and the result of technological disasters, the 2nd grade system ismade up of:management, people, things, environment, the injured and the dead in theaccident, the loss of property, social environment.The 3rd grade system consists of 22items, such as imperfections in institutions, the number of the injured and the dead inthe accident and so on.The writer has calculated the proportions assessment factors and its branch factorsby means of The Analytic Hierarchy Process. The writer has also set up a FuzzyMathematics comprehensive assessment model of technological disasters by means offuzzy set, assessing technological disasters from two layers: the probability and theresult of technological disasters. Considering the two forms of assessment results,people can conclude the degree of the technological disasters.Finally, taking an oil-gas storage for example, the writer evaluates the possibility oftechnological disasters which the oil gas storage faces by his own risk assessment modelof technological disasters.At the end of the thesis, the writer summarizes the above research results, exploresthe problems which need studying in depth and indicates the direction of further study.