The Risk Assessment Of Natural Disasters' Influence On The Main Industry In Zhejiang Coastal Area

Zhejiang coastal areas, bearing 54 percent of population and creating 67 percent of GDP, is the economic barycenter of Zhejiang province. This article saw Zhejiang coastal area as risk studying area to do risk assessment of industrial-disaster, which has important guiding signifi-cance for the social and economic development.It, based on markov process, forecasted the natural disasters probability and mutation probability in Zhejiang coastal area. Seeing them as evaluation content, it did the risk assess-ment of natural disasters in Zhejiang coastal. Then, saw the four major disasters as a disaster system, established the industrial-disasters vulnerability evaluation model, according to factors suscepted by this disaster system. At last, integrated disaster risking and industrial-disasters vul-nerability, established the risk assessment model of natural disasters'influence on the main in-dustry in Zhejiang coastal area and putted forward some corresponding countermeasures of risk managementThis paper's main conclusions are as follows:(1) It established probability prediction model and mutation probability prediction model respectively according to hazard-formative factors and space division. The results show that: the typhoon, heavy rain and storm surge has the highest probability, and the large-scale and oversize disasters are more for the typhoon, rainstorm, landslides and storm surge; Hangzhou zone, NingZhou zone, Wenzhou zone are more prone to happen disasters, and the large and oversize disasters mainly happen in Wenzhou zone, NingZhou zone and Taizhou zone.(2) Comprehensiving probability and mutation probability, it calculated the risking hazards in Zhejiang coastal hazard are the typhoon, rainstorm, storm surge and drought; the top three risking zones in Zhejiang coastal are NingZhou zone, Hangzhou zone and Wenzhou zone,Taizhou zone,Shaoxing zone and Jiaxing zone.(3) Seeing the four major disasters as a disaster system, it did industrial exposure sex-ual analysis, industrial-disasters Sensitivity analysis, regional disaster prevention and mitigation capacity analysis and industrial-disasters vulnerability analysis. The evaluation results show: Jiaxing zone, Hangzhou zone and Taizhou zone have higher industry exposuring; Shaoxing zone, NingZhou zone and Jiaxing zone's industries are more sensitive for disasters; Jiaxing zone, Taizhou zone and Shaoxing zone have weaker anti-disaster ability; synthesized the three indexes, the industrial-disasters vulnerability from high to low in turn is Jiaxing zone, Shaoxing zone NingZhou zone, Hangzhou zone, Taizhou zone, Wenzhou zone(4) Integrating disaster risking and industrial-disasters vulnerability, it established the risk assessment model of natural disasters'influence on the main industry in Zhejiang coastal area. The industrial-disasters risk from high to low in turn is Jiaxing zone, Shaoxing zone NingZhou zone, Hangzhou zone, Taizhou zone, Wenzhou zone.