Technology Of SEE Complex System And Method Of Environment Programme

To provide a comprehensive, scientific and practical planning that is necessary for the regional coordinate development amongst society, economy and environment, this thesis conducts the research on the description, evaluation, forecast and optimization technologies of the social-economic-environmental (SEE) complex system, as well as the environmental planning method. The contents of the thesis are organized as follows.First, SEE system is oriented as a complexity system reflecting the mutual and complicated functions amongst the internal elements, which can be characterized by the complicated system structure properties far from balance status and with dissipation structures, as well as the behaviors of which the input-output response shows uncertainty that beyond people's experiential and qualitative cognition.Secondly, against the complicated structures and behaviors of the complex system, the technologies of description, evaluation, prediction and optimization for SEE system are developed.(1) According the counter-intuition and uncertainty characteristics of SEE complex system, the following quantitative models and methods are presented: SD-IO-MOP integrated model is established, which is based on the SD model, combined with the MOP model as the optimization supported system to get values and the IO model as instrument of extract forecasting of the resources demand of SEE. The model can describe the system as a whole and reflect the impacts to the system of all key elements considering the trend and stability of the regional economic structural development with the entrance for the local decision-making groups and expert, thus can be regarded as a useful tool in making optimal decision in a planning research for improvement feasibility and maneuverability of the plan as well as guarantee the optimization level of the selected plan.The SD-IO integrated model is constructed for SEE evaluation that ensures the objectivities of the evaluation procedures, accuracy of the evaluation results, and properness and timing of the conclusions.The emergy analysis is combined to the SEE planning research for evaluation the state of SEE complex system, which is characterized by social service-oriented function. In the precondition of guaranteeing the correctness of the evaluation results, this study expended the range of emergy analysis from the current method or history state to the future state of the plan level year.ISMOP model is also provided to dealing with the uncertainty of SEE complex system and improved the precision and feasibility of the plan design.(2) According the dissipation structures of the SEE complex system, the following quantitative models and methods are also presented: The importance of macro structure analysis is revealed, based on which a three-step mode of SEE complex forecasting is proposed in the macro, whole and micro aspects, avoiding the prevalent mode shortcomings that ignore the effect of the macro structure changes to the SEE complex system and guarantee the correctness of the forecasting result.The fractal characteristic of regional economic relation intensity in the typical areas is illuminated with theoretical models and logical derivation, which has been applied to the regional macro-structure assessment and trend analysis amongst cities and counties, resulting in useful suggestions for regional high-efficient resource utilizations.The effectiveness of SD method is proved in describing and forecasting the emergence of SEE complex system, thus enriching the SD theoretical framework.Finally, the technologies and methods mentioned above are applied to the project of"Sustainable utilization planning of the water resources in Tianjin city","Water resources planning in the Linkong industrial area of Tianjin city", and"Eco-campus plan". The results are reasonable and further verify that the proposed technologies and methods are effective and valuable for practical global optimized planning and optimization in accordance with the comprehensive, coordinate, sustainable development of the economy, resources and society.