Research On The Prediction, Reduction Potential To The COD Total Emission Ammount And Countermeasures At The Provincial Level

The serious water pollution and water resources shortages which leaded to the deterioration of regional ecological environment seriously affected the quality of social and economic development, but also constrained the speed of regional socio-economic development. To achieve the coordinated development of the resources, the environment and the economy, it was urgent and necessary to analyze the pressure and the factors associated with the regional COD reduction, to predict the total discharge of COD, tap the potential of COD emission reduction and seek the measures of COD reduction. With the application of environmental science, economics and statistics, this paper predicted the total discharge of the regional COD, constructed the COD reduction potential model and proposed the specific countermeasurement by using quantitative and qualitative analysis, normative and empirical research. The major results are as follows:(1) It scientifically defined in theory the concepts, nature and content associated with COD reduction. In the perspective of environmental economics, it systematically analysis the basic theory for COD reduction, comprehensively expounded the supporting role of COD emission reduction policies, and explicated the basic cognition of"emission reduction projects are the basic means, structural emission reduction is the fundamental way, the management of emission reduction is the key, while the emission reduction technologies are the elemental support".(2) With the application of the learning curve theory, it set up the provincial COD emissions quantitative predicting methods; based on the parameters of Hebei Province, it analysis the reachablity of the completion of the COD emission targets for the eleventh five-year planning period in Hebei Province; based on the verification predicting method, it quantatively predicted the total COD emission amount in the period of 2009—2015 in Hebei Province.(3) It fully and systematically analyzed the key paths to reduction of COD total emission amount, quantitatively analysis the emission reduction performances and control costs of the three ways; from the economic, technical and management aspects, it demonstrated the advantages and disadvantages and applying conditions of each emission reduction way.(4) It analysis in-depth the key restraining factors of the economic structure and social development in Heber to COD steady reduction. It expounded fully the pressures of COD reduction which Hebei faces in line with Hebei emission reduction targets and the environmental function of the surface water required by the state, and in accordance with the principle of technical and economic reachablility.(5) It scientifically and reasonably defined the concept of COD emission reduction potential, and establishes the provincial COD emission reduction model in accordance to the relevant theories. On the basis of the systematic analysis on the present emission situation and predicted emission amount of the industrial and domestic emissions of COD in Hebei Province, with emission targets as the restraining condition, it quantatively calculated COD reduction potential under various circumstances, specified the reduction potential to be tapped as priorities, put forward the concrete measures for potential tapping, demonstrated its technical and economic feasibility, and provided a decision-making basis for the regional emission reduction work.(6) It systematically studied the countermeasures for COD reduction at provincial level, with emphasis on emission trading system and investing and financing countermeasures for COD emission reduction. It analysis the basic conditions for the implementation of COD emission trading, proposes the operating style for emission trading based on the "Kyoto flexible mechanisms", and provided a basis for the try-outs of the emission trading at the provincial level.The initiatives of the paper: it established a theoretical and policy system for COD reduction, introduced COD emission learning curve and COD emission reduction potential concept, sets up the quantitative predicting methods for provincial COD total emission amount and the quantitative predicting arithmetic model for COD reduction potential, and realized for the first time to quantify the total emission amount and reduction potential of COD at the provincial level.Not only does this study have important theoretical significance, but also have practical significance to improve the quality of water environment and promote the healthy economic and social development.