A Study On The Disaster Management Institutional Changes And Its Performance In China

Based on institutional change theory, economic growth theory, evolutionary game theory, management science, disaster science, resource environment economics, and insurance science, and combined with theoretical analysis, empirical analysis, comparative analysis, equilibrium analysis, historical analysis and spot investigation, we apply the practical economy increasing model and evolutionary game model on this research to form a analyzing model which discuss problem form the general aspect to partial and from reason to result under the thought of "stage divide—factor analyzing—performance analyzing—policy suggestion", trying hard to achieve a clear mind and a precise construction. We try to expose the inner rules, stages, and critical factors in the vicissitude through the characteristics of disaster management system transition. On the basis of the former research, we try to make out the measure methods of disaster management system performance, by the method of comparing the economic increasing ratio with disaster and without disaster to figure out an effective method. We try to construct disaster management system performance model in our nation by means of Solow and Harrod-Domar model of economic development. Taking the national economic data between 1989 and 2008, and the influence of the earthquake in 12th, May to economic development in Sichuan province for empirical research, we analyze deeply the influence of disaster management system to the national and district economic development, analyze the whole trend of its management system transition from long-time aspect, recognize its basic principle and give a institutional explain. Finally, we will put forward the countermeasures and suggestions in order to advance the national disaster management system performance from the aspect of institutional innovation.This paper mainly contains four parts:theoretical research, qualitative study, quantitative study and countermeasure research.The first chapter analyzes the research background, significance, and target of topic selection in details.The second and third chapter is the theoretical research. Chapter 2 describes the function of the system transition theory, evolutionary game theory, and economic growth theory in disaster management system research through different aspects and levels, and reveals the theoretical basis of performance evaluation in disaster management system at the same time. Chapter 3 gives the definition of the implication, factors, principles of disaster management theory and system inaugurated, analyzes simply the current situation of disaster management system in China now, and compares this kind of system between America and Japanese, hoping to provide disaster management system reformation with reference meaning in China.Chapter four and five, which use the method of qualitative research, is the core part of the whole paper. Chapter four makes a brief sort on the evolution of Chinese ancient disaster-relief system and the disaster-relief idea, in the terms of historical angle, paying emphasis on the development of the Chinese recent disaster management system, and dividing it into four periods: preliminary formation phrase (1949-1978); recovery and modification phrase (1978-1989); revolution and development phrase (1989-1998) and scientific management phrase (1998 to now). The paper makes the summary of characteristics of each phrase and the vicissitude features, and points out the major problems of the current management system at last. Based on the research of the last chapter, Chapter five analyzes the key factors influencing the vicissitude, which are economic base, institutional environment, informal rule and technology, and points out that the main impetus of the vicissitude is the relation game among the benefit-relating people in the disaster management system. In the end, the chapter analyzes its evolutionary mechanism.Chapter six, using the method of quantitative research, is also a core part. At first, it analyzes the relation between the disaster and economic growth, brings forward a research model of focusing on the influence of disaster to economic growth in system performance research, and then analyzes the variation of economic growth after the disaster by using the Solow Model and Harrod-Doma Model, so as to show the performance of disaster management system. At last, the paper chooses the data from 1989 to 2008 to conduct an empirical research, drawing the conclusion that in most years, the economic growth rate when no disaster happens is lower than that when the disaster happens, which means that the performance with the disaster management system is better than that without the system. At the same time, through analyzing the influence of the earthquake on 12th, May to economy in Sichuan province the paper draws the conclusion that the real economic growth rate is lower than that without disasters when heavy and huge disasters happen, which means the performance of disaster management system is negative.Chapter seven is the research on the solution. According to the evaluation result made in last chapter, this part brings out some countermeasures and suggestions to promote the performance of China's disaster management systOem, which is to innovate the system itself, including the innovation on the idea, the law, the organizational management, the system and performance the national risk management strategy to build the heavy disaster insurance system, and so on. Chapter eight makes prospect on the problem which still needs the further research, and summarizes the major research conclusion.This paper may have breakthroughs in the following aspects through the research:1. The research in this paper applies the theory of institutional change theory which is popular in the economic circles into disaster management research, based on philosophy speculation, reference material analysis, the spot investigation and the research together with the former research results. The interdisciplinary and monographic research on China's institutional change of disaster management, particularly in modern times, is an innovation in methodology. And also, the research results can serve as the completion of economic research on disasters, as they broaden its field of research and consolidate its theoretical basis. Besides, the author, by far, haven't found any similar literature from the searching results of many famous search engines both home and abroad.2. Currently, it is a crucial juncture during the process of economic development and social reform for China. And, China is one of the countries which suffer greatly from disasters. The disaster occurs so frequently that it greatly threatens people's life and property. It is an urgent task to study the historical changes of disaster management system, find out the laws in the changes, analyze existing problems, evaluate the system performance, and sum up experiences and lessons learnt from the process so as to guide the innovation of disaster management system. And also, Several valuable conclusions can be drawn from the research. First of all, the laws in historical changes of disaster management system in China are revealed. Its evolution can be divided into 4 stages, namely, the preliminary formation phrase from 1949 to 1978; the recovery and modification phrase from 1978 to 1989; the revolution and development phrase from 1989to 1998; and scientific management phrase from 1998 ever since. Secondly, the changes of modern disaster management system in China have obvious characteristics, i.e. the transformation from simple relief policy to relief system; from monopolization of central government to management at different levels; from chaos to order, which increase the participation of the society in relief efforts, and the capacity of disaster mitigation. Thirdly, our modern institution of disaster management is closely related to economy and politics, especially influenced by the Third Plenary Session of the 11 th Central Committee of the CPC, and the socialistic market economy reform. Fourthly, the changes of disaster management system benefit an increasingly diversified subject group, including central and local governments, the nation and the society, the society and victims of disasters. Lastly, the empirical research suggests that disaster management system can effectively promote the post-economic recovery in most of years, while in years with heavy and huge disasters, the system performance is negative.