| Nucleus electricity is a kind of energy, which is safe and pure. It is one of an important way for energy development in our country. But, the calamity and disadvantage is very serious when nuclear plant accident occurs. So, decision of nuclear plant emergency is not only an academic topic, but also a serious issue concerned by all country government.The Decision of Nuclear Accident Emergency (DNAE) is a shortest-optimal choice from many countermeasures for protecting benefits of people against disadvantage at least, when a serious accident of nuclear plant have done. It involves much fields, such as politics, economy, society, public health effects, meteorological phenomena and ecological environments and so on, besides that some common problem of multi-attribute decision make, for instance, uncertainty and random, etc. There are many factors: Political influence, costs, averted dose, stress reduction, social and political acceptability etc, must be considered in the procedure of decision-making. So the decision of nuclear accident emergency is a typical complex system decision. Only under the guide of scientific decision theories and methods, and taking the aid of computers as real-time decision-making tool, the need of nuclear accidents emergency can be fully satisfied.Up to now, the RODOS (Real-time On-line Decision Support System) project has developed by more than 20 institute of European Economic Communities, and East European and former Soviet, is one of the most important work around the world, after the greatest calamity of Chornobyl nuclear power plant. The system is composed of four subsystems: Analyzing SubsYstem(ASY) > Countermeasure SubsYstem(CSY) ? Evaluation SubsYstem (ESY)s and Operation SubsYstem (OSY).The work program of RODOS system is following: If the omen of nuclear plant accident occurs , the responsibility of ASY subsystem is calculating basic data including the dose induced by source itenK plun^ wind field-, meteorology ^ environment etc. All possible countermeasures for the accident are generated by the CSY's calculating with the result from ASY subsystem. Then ESY subsystem would give users some best strategies after optimizing and comparing the entire possible countermeasure. The three subsystems are controlled by OSY, which also support interface between system and user, and administrate the system database.Four versions: PRTYl.O, PRTY1.3^ PRTY2.0 and PRTY3.0 have finished, since running of RODOS project. But there is not ESY subsystem in the all versions of RODOS, and ESY still is a concept model in the nearest RODOS's report.S.French has proposed that Bayesian statistical and decision theory can provide such a single, consistent mechanism for handling uncertainty throughout RODOS. However, no article about how to apply the Bayesian method in ESY has been published yet around the world. In this sense, ESY is a gap in the practice of the system.Considered the difference between the algorithms of averted dose in CSY subsystem of RODOS in Europe and China, specially its ESY subsystem could not be used directly in our country, National Program Committee of China established the "Decision support System of Nuclear Accidents Emergency (DSNAE)" as a National key project in 1996. One of the project's aims is: Based on assimilating RODOS system, research and develop a new Decision System of Nuclear Accidents Emergency adapt to our country's situation.The main R&D content we undertake include:1. Founding the basic structure of DSNAE with multi-attribute utility analysis method, and consolidate the system with Bayes method.2. Applying Decision Support System in nuclear accidents emergency3. Research and design the strategy of realizing ESY in computer4. R&D of ESY5. Making the module Chinese, which is correlated with the dose that can be averted.The Chinese Atomic Energy Institute undertake the task studying and developing the whole of subsystem (ESY) and a part of countermeasure subsystem (CSY) in "Decision Support System of Nuclear Accident...
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