Study On The Formation Mechanism Of Carrier Catastrophe In The Transportation And Its Forewarning Management System

Transportations give convenience and make huge value to people, at the same time they take transportation accident and environment pollution which has been in the catastrophical level.Transportation catastrophe brings the losing life,property and the broken environment which are taken by transportation accidents and negative effects of the transportation activity.The essential character of the transportation catastrophe is sociality.The existing researches divide the transportation accident and transportation pollution into two different fields and seldom study the formation mechanism of the transportation catastrophe and forewarning countermeasure on the viewpoint of catastrophe and social management.Based on the viewpoint of catastrophe,macromanagement and integrated the road and water transportation catastrophe which its frequency are higher among the transportation,this paper sets up the forewarning management system of carrier in the transportation catastrophe to find a principle and method of the effective defending transportation catastrophe and reducing catastrophe losing by using the methods of association theory with demonstration investigation,the theory of system ,forewarning management and countermeasure theory.This paper try to offer a new theory and application approach.The carrier which is a factor of the causing transportation catastrophe is this paper's studying object. This paper sets up the formation mechanism mode of the carrier causing transportation catastrophe through studying the reason, character and regulation of the vehicle and ship causing the road,water transportation catastrophe.Through demonstration investigation,the' shortcomings of existing carrier management system in the road,water transportation is found.Using the forewarning management theory,the theory system of the carrier causing transportation catastrophe .inspecting index systemand artificial neural net evaluate(ANN) model is set up.This paper also offer the forecontrolling countermeasure correlation to the inspected status.Finnaly,a software edited with PowerBuild7.0 and Fortran?? is programmed,this software is a forewarning management system in the district vehicle causing road transportation catastrophe.The main work and conclusions of this paper followed as below:(1) Based on viewpoint of the catastrophe and social management, study ideaand analysis mode of the carrier causing transportation catastrophe and forewarning management system is established.(2) This paper offers the formation mechanism of the carrier causing transportation catastrophe, which are caused by the limitation of the carrier itself structure capability,the losing control between carrier and driver,the losing control between carrier and transportation environment and the losing control among the vehicle implement-driver-environment.(3) Management factor should be in the same important position as improvement the structure capability of the carrier ,improvement the manipulate skill of the driver and the improvement of the transportation enviroment.The relation mode among the driver, carrier .environment and management factor is set up. This paper have a demonstration investigation and evaluate the status and the deficiency of our country's road,water manangement body,management object,management aim,management method and the management process.(4) The forewarning management system of the carrier causing transportation catastrophe is set up.That is the principle of the forewarning, the function and aim of the forewarning management, the working content of the forewarning management, operation pattern, organization system, work program and the mode of the forewarning signal output.(5) Based on the district transportation (road and water transportation),this paper set up three level evaluate index system which include the status of the district carrier security, the status of the district carrier destroy environment, the status of the district carrier security management and the status of the district...