The Studies On The Risk Of Railway Transportation Disaster And Forewarning Management System

In our country rail transportation is regarded as a main way of commodities interflow and passenger traveling. The development of rail transportation is closely related with economy development and the stability of society. However rail transportation has brought the convenience and benefit for us, at the same time harm such as injuries and deaths, property damage, environment pollution and ecology destroy etc. So it is an important problem of concerning the national economy and the people' s livelihood to pay attention to reducing the disaster of rail transportation as the development of rail transportation.Our country has been paying attention to the safety of rail transportation, particularly in nearly 20 years we have invested much financial resources, material resources and manpower in the change of equipment, the upgrade of technology and the training of employees and have obtained fairly good effect. According to the data of major accidents, heavy accidents and dangerous accidents of our railway from 1988 to 2000, the total trends to decline. But in the course of declining there is fluctuation and it shows unstable situation, the process of railway safety advancement goes up as spiral way. Sometime railway safety management may become an unhealthy circle of safety deterioration to safeguard to safety improvement to safety relaxation to safety deterioration again. The fluctuation of the number of accidents is often responsive to varied environment and the fluctuation of safety management. Rail transportation system is a complex system that contains many subsystems, and the reasons to leading to disaster are very complex. In our existing safety management there are more partial emergency management than total management, more management often the event than management in advance and management in process. Because we lack long-term and stable methods of supervision and forecast for accidents which may occur and reasons which lead to accidents to occur, it is so difficult to the prevention of disaster that the problem that the disaster of the same nature occur again has been solved. In order to adapt the quick development of our economy rail will still upgrade. In the case the safety of rail transportation is becoming more and more important.On the basis of analyzing cases of accidents the paper investigates andresearches the crisis symptom of the factors of staffs, equipment, circumstance and management with system engineering theory, and summarizes the reason rule and risk of disaster. In view of the shortcomings of existing safety management in our rail transportation, the paper tries to build a forewarning management system of rail transportation with the help of enterprise forewarning management theory, and expounds the activities, work flow, organization pattern and personnel arrange etc. To enhance the practicality of the system the paper builds the target system of forewarning system and presents the way of outputling message. Finally the paper discusses the countermeasures of prevention.