The Research Of Flood Intelligent Forecasting Method And System

Flood forecasting is an important method to decrease the lose of flood disaster in our country. Optimizing the flood forecasting method, improving the precision of flood forecasting and putting flood-control operations in practice have significance to protecting the safe of people's life and estate, to building the harmonious society. Discussing the methods of flood forecasting deeply and researching the use of ANN, genetic algorithms, and fuzzy algorithms in flood forecasting are profitable to flood forecasting theories and methods.This research comes from the Program"863",——"The inductive digital liquid level sensor and automatic inspect-control system". And this paper get the committal of postdoctoral fund of Tiancheng CO.,LTD of Taiyuan University of technology. Using Wenyuhe basin as object,researched the basin flood forecasting model and flood forecasting system. Aimes at improving the precision of flood forecasting in semiarid area, the paper researched the flood forecasting intelligence method in semiarid area, the ANN flood forecasting model, and the optimization to ANN flood forecasting model using genetic algorithms and fuzzy algorithms.The contents and conclusion of this paper include:(1)In allusion to the hydrology character of Wenyuhe basin, based on the research of hydrology process analyze, the paper used several kinds of runoff yield model, concentration model and river way calculation, then crossed these models to set up 6 kinds of projects for flood forecasting. By comparing the effect of different projects, choosen the most compatible method for basin. This method can give more scientific information for anti-flood decision-making.(2)Because of the asymmetry of the space distributing and time evolvement of basin rain and infiltration, and the random combination of rain and infiltration, the field of runoff yield is changing with the change of space and time, portioned the basin area into units, broke time to period to calculated the concentration of flow, and calibrated the parameters in different units.(3)Considering the models have many parameters, the calculate of parameters is subjectivity to people's experience and time consuming, developed the calibration dialog...