Research Of Water Resources Rational Distribution Based On Conflict, Compensation And Risk Analysis

Water resources rational distribution is an effective measure to resolve water shortage problem of our country facing to now and in future. From origin and character of water resources distribution, comflict problems in water resources distribution are analyzed by applying correlation theories of economics and water resources, sustainable development water resources distribution mode is recommended. Case as the Yellow River watershed, simulation model of water resources rational distribution based on compensation is established. Distribution schemes are calculated and evaluated. Water resources rational distribution watershed scheme, measures, policies and some suggests are put forward. The main research content and results are as follows:(1)By appling game theory, water resources distribution comflict problems are analyzed and four different distribution modes are put forward, i.e."Public Terra Tragedy"mode, watershed administer institution control mode, watershed institution management mode based on compensation mechanism and the self-constrain mode. The game matrix is put forward to analyse and discuss the four water resources distribution modes and it tests watershed institution management mode based on compensation mechanism is the most effective distribution mode, and the self-constrain mode is effective approach to solve water shortage problem.(2)Aimed at rational water resources distribution mode, conflict model isestablished by using the conflict analysis techniques of Fraser and Hipel (F-H), in which there are three sides concerned, i.e. the watershed institute, the upstream district and the downstream district. By considering two strategies carried out by watershed institute: prompting policy and control policy, two out of 18 possible outcomes, the partly cooperative outcome and the fully cooperative one are optimized by analysing the preferences of each side and the stability of their outcome. It provides macroscopical strategy support for water resources rational distribution.(3)In order to achieve the objective of water resources unified distribution, according to the principle of water resources integrated use and sustainable development, cased as the Yellow River watershed, water resources rational distribution simulation model is established. Different distribution measures, including project and non-project measures are adopted to obtain 19 water resources rational distribution schemes in 2010 water level year of the Yellow River watershed.(4)Based on considering risk factors, two different methods are adopted to evaluate water resources rational distribution schemes of the Yellow River watershed. They are risk estimating model based on Monte-Carlo-Neural-Network (MC-NN) simulation and risk model based on panasystems observation-control theory. Recommended scheme of two methods is accordant, that is the project 19. It proves the two methods are effective and rational.(5)By analysing economy effect of water resources distribution under policy in exsistence and after improving, it is showed that the government must improve some policy to be suit to new water resources distribution mode in order to achieve benefit Pareto improving of watershed distribution main body, that is meet absolute cooperation benefit. Regarded policy improving course as the difficulty self- multiplication system, it shows it is a spiral course by analysing spiral route of policy improving course, and at last some policies and suggests of water resources distribution are put forward.