The Research Of Design Risk Management In Large-scale Public Building Projects

With the development of the economy and the fast advancement of the urbanization, the large-scale public structures are mushrooming all over the Country. The architectural design, a part of the construction process, but plays a very important role in the entire process of the construct project, and directly determines the safety, functions and the economic feasibility of the building. However, little information on the efficient method of the risk identification and estimation of the architectural design projects is provided in the current articles and papers, and the unique and systematic risk-controlling methods are still blank. Interviews with the various enterprises and the survey show that some entities involved in the large-scale public constructions are still not aware of risks or lack of concepts of risk-control. It is in fact that the entities involved in the project are very eager for the theories of the risk-management of the large-scale public constructions and hope to be provided the theoretical guidance of an effective, special and systematic risk-management. On the basis of the fact that the current references pay rare attention on the risk researches of the large-scale public constructions, this research thus focuses on this point and does on investigation about the risk of the large-scale public constructions.Based on the analysis about the current stations of the pertinent subjects, the main issues of this research are studied as following:1.Based on the existed systematic understanding of the project risk-management theory and methods, the current problems and the circumstances of the project risk-management of the large-scale public constructions are analyzed. According to the current conditions and characteristics of the risk-management of the architectural design in our Country, the significance of the risk-management of the large-scale public construction is analyzed, and the theory system and the approaches of establishing the risk-management system are provided.2. By the survey and the statistic analysis, 38 parameters in the architectural design of the large-scale public constructions are summarized based on the CDEF model. In this model, there are 7 in the conceptual phase (C), 12 in the design phase (D), 16 in the execution phase (E), and 3 in the finishing phase (F). In turn, by the "Mean Score", the general index of the risk level of the architectural design of the large-scale public constructions is analyzed.3. The factor analysis is conducted on all the identified risk parameters, and the risk estimation index system of the architectural design of the large-scale public constructions is established. By applying the general fuzzy estimation method based on the coarse set rights-determination, the estimation model to evaluate the project risks is produced, and further the weight of each key risk factor and parameter as well as the weight of the risk-sequent estimation index is calculated. And the general risk level and the levels of each key risk factor in the architectural design of the large-scale public constructions are gained.4. By Game Theory on the action of the entities in the architectural design of the large-scale public construction, the sources of the risks are explained by the asymmetry of the information. Firstly, the "game" between the owners and the design institutes in the bidding phase and the execution of the contract is discussed; then, the "game" between the design institutes and the supervisors is analyzed; finally, the "game theory" model among the three entities in the architectural design of the large-scale public constructions is established. By the mixed strategy of Nash equilibrium, the relations among the three entities are analyzed and some measurements to solve the rent-seeking problem are provided.5. By the information economic theory, the elusion measurement used in the architectural design of large-scale public construction—design assurance is investigated. Based on the analysis of the characteristics of converse choosing in the architectural design of large-scale public construction, the converse choosing model of the design insurance in the architectural design of the large-scale public constructions is established to discuss the mechanism of the converse choosing of risk elusion.6. The risk-control system in the architectural design of the large-scale public constructions is analyzed. It is noticed that the risk factors of the owners, the consultation (supervision) entity and the design institutes are the highly risked factors in the architectural design of the large-scale public constructions. Therefore, in this works, based on the analysis of the control of the micro-environment of the Country on the design projects, the risk-control system is investigated from each aspect of the owners, the supervisors and the design institutes, and the risk control of the credits is discussed as well as the suitable risk-management system for the architectural design of the large-scale public constructions is provided from the aspect of the project management mode.