Research On Risk Management Of Architectural Design Of Expo Eco-city Low-Carbon Business Center Project

With the progress of era,the concept of green building is already familiar to everyone,along with the requirement of environmental protection,energy conservation and emission reduction,green building has gradually become the mainstream of the Times.For example,we often hear the prefabricated building,actually it is a kind of green building.Related research of green building design risk is short in domestic and abroad,based on the concept of design risk management related theory as a guide,combining with the characteristics of green building,I expect to find a more practical phase of the green building design risk control and management methods.This article mainly discusses from the following aspects:Firstly,the author divided design process into three stages: planning stage,implementation stage and ending stage,according to the different participate roles,further divided the risks as environment risks,owner risks,design crop risks and construction crop risks.Then,divide the process of risk management into: risk identification,risk assessment,risk evaluation and risk control four different phases.After that,I describe the concept of Bayes principles and its usage.At this point,the theoretical framework of green building design risk is completed.Secondly,according to the previous theoretical framework,through an instance of "World EXPO Eco-city,Low Carbon Center",I take the first step of risk management,risk identification,recognized 41 risk events,then take the second step risk assessment,based on the Bayes theory,I integrate the historical data and the current data effectively.I calculate the prior probability of each risk events,among those risks I also used the Delphi method to calculate the prior probability therefore there isn't enough historical data.Then I corrected data as adjustment factor to get the a posteriori probability of risks.Thirdly,after simply introduce AHP analytic hierarchy process,I evaluated the loss caused by each risks through Experts' opinions,which I get the weight coefficient of each risk relative to the final goal.then I take the third step risk evaluation,which is obtained by multiply the weight of each risk and posteriori probability.Ordering the final list and focus on the top risks,because they will cause the most economic loss and with a high probability to happening.Fourthly,I took the last step of risk management,the fourth step risk control.Then I figure out the risk control plan of the top five risks.For the lower score risks,I ignore them to save the manpower and material resources.Then,repeat the above steps and revise the probability of risk.