Research On Risk Analysis And Decision Of Spinning Reserve Scheme In The Environment Of Electricity Market

Spinning reserve is one of the important ancillary services and it can improve the reliability of power system. However, it should be purchased as one kind of resource. Therefore, the layout of spinning reserve scheme in the environment of electricity market should pay attention to both the reliability and the economy in power system operation. In the paper, the layout of spinning reserve scheme is essentially regarded as a risk and multi-objective decision-making problem. And the problem is divided into multi-objective decision-making problem with infinite alternative and multi-objective decision-making problem with finite alternative according to the number of schemes which may be selected; thereby it can be solved by using the theory of risk analysis and decision. The reliability and the economy in power system operation cannot be compared in one uniform time framework because of the different time domains between the traditional reliability evaluation used for development planning and the bidding in electricity market. Firstly, the repairable failure model and aging failure model are derived from the uniform definition of unavailability. The model of component's forced outage is established by using the multiple competing failure rules. And the formulas for evaluating the reliability of power system in different periods are investigated. Secondly, the multi-objective decision-making model with infinite alternative used for the best scheme of spinning reserve is established, which considers both the reliability and the economy in the environment of electricity market. And the multi-objective and layered decision-making is used to solve this model. The multi-objective decision-making model with finite alternative used for the best scheme of spinning reserve is solved by using the utility expectation decision-making model of spinning reserve's gain or loss. In the end, the spinning reserve's value for all the market sides having risk elements is also evaluated by using the expectation of spinning reserve's gain or loss, and the spinning reserve's expenses are apportioned in proportion. In order to improve the precision and astringency of the algorithm, the methods used for improving the computing efficiency of Monte Carlo simulation are discussed. The theories and methods mentioned in the paper have effect on encouraging all partners in power market to raise their reliability so that the reliability of power system operation can be enhanced through economic methods.