Research On Modeling And Simulation For The Decision Support System Of Search Submarine Scheme By Antisubmarine Warfare Patrol Aircrafts

With the development of submarine in the tendency towards high speed, deep diving, and low noise, antisubmarine warfare (ASW) is becoming more difficult and complicated. Compared with other ASW forces such as ASW submarine, ASW surface vessel and ASW helicopter, ASW patrol aircraft that has feature of rapid respond, long voyage and endurance, can be equipped with various search equipment and attacking weapons. With the advantage of invulnerability by submarine attack, ASW aircraft has become one of armaments, so many navy powers are competing to develop it. There are so many choices of searching and attacking submarine means and all the uncertainties existed in ASW, commanders cannot afford to cope with the ASW tasks merely depending on their experience. How to apply the computer technology and modern decision theory to build up the Operational Command and Decision Assistance System(OCDAS), Which can assist them to provide the operational plans for commanders and exert operational efficiency of antisubmarine aircraft maximally, is a significant field in developing modern antisubmarine patrol aircraft.Both the vehicles operate in different environmental media from aircraft, and also submarine is of stealthy, so antisubmarine aircraft has to spend most of time to search it. The most important function of OCDAS is to optimize the search plans. The dissertation therefore focuses on OCDAS to research and establish the mathematical models of optimized searching plan.First of all the dissertation explores the operational performances of patrol aircraft and submarine, and features of main ASW searching means, and analyzes decision-making process of ASW, It is suggested that the searching process can be divided into two levels: the first level for choosing the searching plans among the combination between sonobuoy, magnetic anomaly detection (MAD), radar, infrared detector, and Electronic Support Measures (ESM); the second level for choosing the sonobuoy deployment patterns involved in searching plans. In accordance with the search decision-making process, the major functions and frameworks of OCDAS is proposed.In accordance with the target information obtained before call search ASW and patrol search ASW tasks, and taking notice of oversimplification and unreasonableness in present search effectiveness evaluation models, the dissertation makes a study of principles of submarine initial position diffusion and motion diffusion, and derives the corresponding models. On the basis of submarine diffusion principles, the search effectiveness evaluation models are investigated, the results can be used for search decision-making.Based on the basic ASW modes and the acting range forecast of searching means in the different combat environments, the dissertation makes a study of the searching effectiveness and establishes the evaluation models in the situation of regular searching patterns and random searching pattern using sonobuoy, MAD, radar and infrared detector.In consideration of the fuzzy factors influencing the first level decision-making, the fuzzy decision theory is adapted to set up the model for choosing the searching equipment combination in terms of search efficiency, stealth, maneuverability and economical efficiency. The sonobuoy consumption influence is deliberately added to weight factor consideration. Based on Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP), the changeable fuzzy set vector with consumptive equipment storage factor is introduced to calculate the fuzzy distance between optional plans and the ideal one, so as to evaluate the degree of approximation. The priority searching plan models with regard to difference submarine navigation status, therefore, are established.Considering the inputs and outputs of various searching patterns with sonobuoys are able to obtain beforehand in the first level searching plan, and in order to reduce the subjectivity by human in the weight allocation with the method of the fuzzy decision, the dissertation adopts the data envelopment analysis (DEA) theory to choose the second level searching plan for more objectiveness. In according to the operational feature of sonobuoys, the DEA evaluation object and criterion are brought forward, and the priority searching pattern is chosen based on comparing the relative effectiveness of different searching patters. Because the outputs from searching system are denoted in the way of probability, and the boundary effect is obvious, the dissertation puts forward the method of using decision-maker's preference to correct the probability outputs and formulates sonobuoy pattern selecting models based on the decision-maker's preference, making the evaluation results more objective while taking the decision-maker's subjective wills into consideration.All the effectiveness evaluation and decision models mentioned in the dissertation have been derived strictly and passed through simulation validation. The simulation results about typical situations indicate that the models are reasonable and conclusions are feasible for application to the ASW search plan assistance system.The dissertation makes a theoretical study on ASW OCDAS by means of modern decision theory for the first time in the domestic community of ASW and bears great academic significance. The achievements are of great value to developing ASW patrol aircraft and have remarkable military benefits.