System Dynamics Analysis Of Planning Policies

In the planning domain, the proposition of urban planning moving towards public policy had achieved a broad consensus after years of discussion, then the next proposition of how urban planning move to public policy is brought up to develop in-depth the theories and methods to guide planning practice.Promoting the proposition of how urban planning move to public policy includes two aspects: one is system construction by the government (as procedural justice); the other is policy analysis by planning researchers (as technical rationality). The former focuses on the promotion of political decision-making latitude and the formation of consensus, while the latter promotes scientific information latitude and the acumulation of knowledge. From the point of policy analysis, the paper will discuss the theories and methods for planning policy analysis, taking the Beijing housing market as an example and using system dynamics for reference.Planning policy analysis derives from the traditional system science, sociology, statistics and other related sciences in the development and application of urban planning, in which the development of system theory and model technique provides the tools for planning research. Although the pure scientific rational positivism was criticized by post-positivism, scientific rationality is one important aspect of policy analyst different from other roles in policy activities. Because system dynamics excels to solve the complex feedback system problem, it provides the thought and method for urban planning policy analysis.Analyzing the housing market principles, two models are established to discuss the impact of planning policy: the model of housing policy in planning and the model of planning policy in housing. The former describes a city by four abstract elements: population, industry, land and housing, which reveals the relation of housing in the overall urban environment and the impact of planning intervention on the urban system. The latter model uses the housing data of Beijing from 2000 to 2006, discussing the way, the depth and the practical features of planning policy on the housing market. It concludes that the development of planning policy should change from the blueprint policy model (focusing on static objective) to the dynamic control model (focusing on the evolution of the process). From the point of housing market healthy development and housing equitable distribution, this paper advices that in the next few years in Beijing, the proposed affordable housing and commercial housing supply ratio should be 1:2.In the end, the paper concludes that:â‘ a theory model of environment-goals-process is proposed to planning policy analysis, which must analyze the law of existing environment and dynamically combine the three elements of environment, goals and process;â‘¡a planning policy laboratory may be established in the reference of system dynamics to expand the planning policy analysis capacity;â‘¢to improve the government ability, we should try to improve the planning process of policy uncertainty and establish dynamic controlling mechanism and balancing the residential land distribution mechanism.