Research On Power Load Forecasting And Transmission Network Planning Of Natural Areas

Electric power industry is an important composition and foundation of national economy. So the reasonable carrying out power system planning is the prerequisite and basis of healthy development of electric power industry. The research on natural areas power load forecasting and transmission network planning can provide more scientific and rational decision-making basis for the planning and construction of transmission network, so the research of this paper has very important practical significance. In this paper, according to the results of transmission network planning studies and the power load forecasting in the past, we will more in-depth study the technology of natural areas power load forecasting and electrical network planning. The major achievements and innovation lie in the following.1. The paper proposed the concepts of natural areas and its power load forecasting and electrical network planning. Systematically expound theoretical research of the natural areas power load forecasting, demand side management and transmission network planning in the electricity market environment.2. We systematically studied the characteristics of natural areas power load. Analyze the primary factors to influence power load and relationship of between the factors and power load change. These to carry on the precise effective natural areas power load forecast have vital practical significance.3. Proposed the gray natural areas power load forecast model based on the support vector regression error correction. According to typical natural areas electricity consumption structure analysis, we can know that the gray natural areas power load forecast model based on the support vector regression error correction that we proposed has better prediction accuracy and adaptability, and enables the natural areas power load forecast precision to have enhances greatly.4. We introduced the electric power demand side management factor in the natural areas electrical network planning to study the effective measures to raise the natural areas load factor. These have highlighted investment efficiency of natural areas electrical network planning under the electric power market environment. Proposed electric power demand side management evaluation model based on exponential scale analytic hierarchy process. This model consider each factor's influence, such as the power plant, the Electricity company, the participation and the non-participation power consumer, the environmental factor as well as the fair factor and so on, and carry on the model validation verification.5. Had systematically analyzed the content, the step, the method as well as the existence question of natural areas electrical network planning and put forward the corresponding proposals and countermeasure.6. We systematically propose the project evaluation system of natural areas electrical network planning. This system can be used under the electric power market environment to the natural areas electrical network planning project index evaluation analysis.