Studies On The Key Technology Of Pest Risk Analysis In Plant Protection

Facing on new situation that China join WTO, aim at important question of pest risk analysis (PRA) currently, this paper carry out an approach of theory and method of PRA key technology in plant protection according to problem PRA data acquisition, PRA data analysis and PRA system.Ecologically simulated reality (ESR) growth chamber is based ESR technology. Development and application of ESR growth chamber is an innovation and key of this dissertation, other parts of the thesis server as the key. This paper include to three parts that is PRA data acquisition (first to fourth part), PRA data analysis (fifth to ninth part) and PRA system (tenth to eleven part).Firstly, Summarize theory and method of PRA in plant protection, establish ESR technology and frames of multi-factor regulation. Weather is a key element in environment and can't control in nature. Using mathematical models, such as Markov Chain, Monte Carlo, Fourier series, and weak stationary process, so a weather generator of Beijing is build to which include four function parameters of daily maximum temperature, minimum temperature, precipitation, solar radiation and seventy eight structural parameters. Using the weather model, exploit hardware and software management system of ESR growth chamber that can generate variational and imitating temperature of any period according to weather data of fact or simulation. Data of PRA would be acquired if pest, host enemy and soil were schemed to put into some ESR growth chambers that have different weather of some area and any season. ESR growth chamber has an innovation in theory, feasibility in technology and potential benefit.Secodly, Sitobion avenae data of investigated and monitored and weather data of many years is dividied fnto different seriary of grade according to speciality standard. The series are calculated and analyzed by correlation analysis, stochastic simulation, Monte Carlo, and Markov chain, Monte Carlo, so a group model of risk function is established. Those models call risk function models. The result of correlation analysis is as follows, the series of Sitobion avenae of emergence size and period correlate with temperature, precipitation, a sum of heat and a sum of rain. Weather state factor of temperature-precipitation can be used to forecased the population of Sitobion avenae. A problem of risk probability can be settled by the grade series of calculation and stochastic simulation, order transfer of Markov chain, so table of risk value of cantemperature, precipitation and Sitobion avenae.are list This is a new approach about PRA in plant protection. The risk probability is a supplement and base to expert give a factor score, and more scientific and veracious too. If the grade series of fact are replaced with the otherone series of experiment of ESR growth chamber, so PRA and forecast can also carry out in ESR growth chamber. This is a break though. Purpose that PRA data of fact calculate risk probability is application of ESR growth chamber in future.Thirdly, this paper give a conception ecologically web (EW), approach and establish a new PRA system in plant (compound system of weather-geography-biology (WGB)) protection that base on EW to combine with data acqusition and data analysis. The system is a part of ecosystem health, will supply more data, technology and theory to ecosystem health when the system of more research is completed.