Study On System Evaluation And Simulation Of Sustainable Development Of Construction Industry In China

As a new development concept, sustainable development has been widely recognized in theworld. The sustainable development of construction industry is a new idea emerged by theconcept of sustainable development and construction industry. The present studies are primarilyfocused on qualitative researches of concept definition and strategy investigation. In order tomake an intensive study of the sustainable development of construction industry and applyresearch theories and methods into practice, the problem of system evaluation and simulation ofsustainable development of construction industry in China is studied in this paper. The researchcontent includes the theoretical basis, the system analysis, the building of evaluation indexsystem, the system evaluation and the simulation of sustainable development of constructionindustry in China. The results obtained in this paper are the continuous improvement, innovationand development based on the summary and analysis of the existing related research results. Theresults would be of theoretical guidance and practical value to the analysis and evaluation ofdeveloping situation, the selection of developing model and the formulation of relevant policiesfor the construction industry in China. In this paper, the main research work and conclusions areas follows:(1) Based on the relevant research results of sustainable development of construction industryin China and abroad and from the comprehensive research perspective of sustainabledevelopment theory, systematic science theory and comprehensive evaluation theory, the paperdiscusses the definition and connotation of sustainable development system of constructionindustry and puts forward the related concepts. The internal operation mechanism, the target, thestructure and the characteristic of the system are analyzed. The theoretical research framework ofsystem analysis, system evaluation and system simulation of sustainable development system ofconstruction industry has been constructed. The research in this paper would supplement andimprove the sustainable development theory of construction industry and provided reference forthe follow-up studies.(2) In view of the arbitrariness and subjectivity problem in the construction process ofevaluation index system at present, the paper puts forward a ‘comprehensive analysis–clusteranalysis–non parameter test’ method to construct the evaluation index system of sustainabledevelopment of construction industry based on the sustainable development system theory of theconstruction industry. In the index system structure model of objective layer–rule layer–element layer–index layer, the paper adopts a comprehensive analysis method to determine the40primary evaluation indexes firstly, then improves the primary index system by cluster analysisand non parameter test method, and finally selects24indicators to establish the sustainabledevelopment index system of construction industry. The principal components analysis is used toconfirm the validity of this method. (3) The paper uses a traditional comprehensive evaluation method and an improved matterelement extension model to evaluate the sustainable development status of Chinese constructionindustry from the year of2000to2011. The weight of the evaluating index is determined by thecombination of the AHP and entropy method. According to the evaluation results with thecomprehensive evaluation method, the comprehensive evaluation index of sustainabledevelopment system of construction industry continues to increase from0.0905in2000to0.8335in2011. According to the evaluation results with the improved matter element extensionmodel, the level characteristics value of sustainable development system of construction industrychanges from3.4372in2000to1.1405in2011. The evaluation results from the two methodsshows that the comprehensive benefits of economy, resources, environment and social ofconstruction industry in China has raised constantly and the sustainable development level of theindustry has improved continuously.(4) Based on the principle and method of system dynamics, the paper analyzes the cause-effectfeedback relations in the sustainable development system of construction industry by applyingVensim-PLE software. The SD model of the system is constructed and comprises10feedbackloops and45functions. Then the SD model is valified through the effective test, which showsthat the model fits the reality system well and the percentage error is under10%. After that, thepaper sets up4kinds of development models of traditional development, high economicdevelopment, resource-environment protection and coordinated development. The SD model isapplied to simulate and analyze the dynamic state of the construction industry during the periodof2006-2020in China, which gives the results of the optimum development model and providesreference for the government to formulate relevant policies.