Robust Decision Analysis On Emergency Resource Management Under Emergency

With the rapid development of global economy, the emergency arising from allkinds of fields, such as safety, environment and resource occurs frequently. Especiallythe major unconventional emergency has caused a major impact on the socio-economyand public life. In the process of responding to emergency, no matter what emergencymanagement activities, not only the treatment of the wounded, disease prevention, butalso rescue and evacuation of personnel, require resources as support. Therefore, how toeffectively manage limited emergency resources and to construct reasonable emergencyresource management plans palyavery important role in controlling disasterdevelopment, reducing disaster losses and improvingthe emergency response capacity.However, emergency possesses a high degree of suddenness and informationinsufficiency. Although the regions, seasons and time that some emergencies strike canbe estimated, such as hurricanes, still, most of the emergencies are difficult to predict,such as earthquakes and terrorist attacks. Thus, emergency decision-makers can notfully grasp the information on response resources. Aimed at that, this paper studies thedecision-making problemson emergency resource management from the baselineperspectivebased on the activity characteristicsin both preparation and response stages.Focused on the emergency resource pre-positioning, allocation and the transportationevacuation, we propose robust optimization models by means of depicting the demandinformation insufficiency, in order to reveal a number of strategies formanagingemergency resources and to provide support for the emergency management authority todetermine the rescue plan in a scientific way. In this paper, several specific work hasbeen done in the following areas:â‘ This paper studies the level of emergency resource pre-positioning underinsufficientdemand information. Considering the cost for emergency managementauthority and the utility loss for the victims, a two-stage stochastic programming modelis establishedon the basis of known demand distribution. Then, since only the mean andvariance of demand distribution are known, a robust pre-positioning model is proposedvia robust approach, to attain the robustoptimal solution for emergency resourcepre-positioning. In comparison with the decision under full information, the influence ofthe demand mean, standard deviation as well as utility coefficient on the pre-positioninglevel and cost is revealed, and some sound characteristics of therobust pre-positioning decision under partial demand information are demonstrated.â‘¡This paper studies the resource allocationin the initial stage after emergencybreaks out.First, we analyse thedecision-making process of emergency resourceallocation.Then, a two-level decision-making model based on the minimum cost andtime is established by dividing the allocation of emergency resource intotwo associatedproblems. Due to the emergency resource demand uncertainty, a robust two-levelresource distribution-transportation modelis proposed via the robust optimizationmethod. Through simulation experiments, we find out that the emergency resourceallocationscheme has strong robustness and fairness. Besides, a vehicle arrangementscheme is proposed for the emergency authority, thereby, facilitatingthe scientificdecision-making of emergency logistics plan.â‘¢This paper studies emergency evacuation. Cell Transmission Model(CTM) isadopted for embodying the transportation propagation on evacuation network so as tocapture evacuation temporal relationship between traffic flow. To deal with theincomplete information on demand, the deterministic model is transformed to robustoptimization models under different demand uncertainty situations to minimizeevacuation time. Through simulation analysis on three robust evacuation models, wefind out thatthree robust evacuation models have different degrees of robustness andthat decision-makers can choose different risk parameters to balance the evacuationtime withthe robustness of evacuation strategies. Thus,the study can offer decisionsupport to emergency traffic authority that is faced with the evacuation plan.Ourstudy can provide decision support for the emergency resource managementunder the disaster emergency, and promote the ability of supplying emergency reliefresources and resisting disturbance. Along with the more understandingofemergencyoperations and the perfection of the robust decision methods, problems inemergency resource management will receive further attention.