Method Study Of Assessment And Predication Of Regional Carrying Capacity Of Eight Coastal Cities In Yangtze Delta Area

The rapid development of socio-economic will consume a variety of natural resources in the ecosystem. That can lead to decline of the amount of some kinds of resources, or even disappear. The amount of available resources is a directly factor of the scale and speed of socio-economic development, which is defined as the carrying capacity (CC). Regional carrying capacity (RCC) is the integrated capacity of resource, environment, social, economic, human, etc. The economic development will certainly lead to influence of RCC. At the present, the research merely focus on the situation of RCC, which is showed the value or the rank of RCC with the social-economic development. The natural ecosystem uploading is the precondition of economic development. The situation assessment of RCC can’t be as a reference of socio-economic development planning. Thus, it’s an important method to predicate the RCC.At present, the economic development is on the fast lane in China. The National Development Plan are promulgated in the coastal area, and there are three plans in the Yangtze River Delta region. In this paper, a case of eight cities along with Yangtze delta, the RCC is assessed and predicated by using the statistical analysis and data mining. Based on the space state method and the development stage coefficient, the assessment method is improved, which is can compare analysis the RCC of different region. Constructing a set pair method, the growth trend of RCC can be predicated. With the assessment and predication system, the RCC of different scenario can be analyzed in the chosen indicator, to provide a better decision basis for regional development. The forecast analysis of RCC is the trend of carrying capacity with economic development. The RCC can reflect the rationality of socio-economic development goals. Eight chapters are included in this paper.Firstly, this paper describes the background of carrying capacity (CC) research. On the summary of CC theory, evaluation indices system and method, predication model, the study question is summarized in this paper. And. the technical route is put forward. Meanwhile, the paper describes the study area, basis profiles, data source and processing method. The data source includes the statistical yearbook, DEM and TM. Based on the remote analysis model, the data of construction land area, water distribution area and vegetation coverage parameter are extracted in the study area. The data normalization method of fuzzy mathematic theory is fit with RCC evaluation to ensure indicator’s data comprehensiveness.Secondly, based on the D-PSR-C model and existed index system of CC, the index system of RCC are constructed, which contain five-first class indicators and twelve-second indicators. Meanwhile, with economic development and data availability of Yangtze delta area, the third-class indicators are chosen. The RCC of eight cities are assessed by using space state method and development stage coefficient from 1996 to 2013. Comparing with RCC in different year, the situation and growth reflect the influence of economic development.Thirdly, with the theory of set pair analysis (SPA) and Space Euclidean Distance, the predication model (SPA-RCC) is composed. The study data of 1997 to 2013 of eight cities are divided to experimental data and test data, which is for predication model composition or model accuracy testing. The growth rate of RCC are divided three group, which is the analysis set. On this basis, the matrix are built by the theory of same, difference and opposition. The contact degree coefficient is calculated by the matrix operation, and the equation of index and RCC is built. By using the testing data, the RCC rate is calculated with the principle of proximity. Comparing with the forecast data and evaluation data, the model error is analyzed. In this paper, the error rate of SPA-RCC model is-8.63% to 7.19%, which is higher than the nonlinear model and can be used to predict the-RCC.Forth, based on the scenario analysis theory and the normalization environmental protection policy, the RCC scenario are composed with the economic development goal in the Yangtze delta area. That includes three scenarios:rural development model. economic growth model and ecological protection model. By using principle component analysis of the data of indicators’and RCC, the predicating indices system of three different scenarios are constructed with regional economic development plan. The RCC growth rate of 2015 and 2020 are predicated.At the end, based on the RCC situation of eight cities from 1996 to 2013, the contribution rate of the second index are calculated. Comparing with the rate, the key indicators of carrying capacity are filtered in eight cities. With the RCC of three economic development scenarios in 2015 and 2020, the socio-economic development policy are supposed.In this paper, the predication model of RCC is initially constructed, and which is applied to the Yangtze delta area. This model is an obvious method to analyze the tendency of carrying capacity. And, the model can analyze multi-indicator research in other field.