Countermeasure Study Of Plateau Freshwater Fishery Development In Yunnan

Yunnan has put forward the development strategy of the plateau characteristic agriculture, and the freshwater fishery has been listed as one of the six important parts of the plateau characteristic agriculture. As the world has been exposed to the pressure of gradual depletion of marine fishery resources, the development of freshwater fisheries has become more and more important. Under this context, based on the investigation and data analysis, the author carried out the related research pertaining to the thought, path and countermeasure of Yunnan fishery development.First of all, based on the research on the historical changes of the fishery development in Yunnan, this paper comprehensively considered the impact of political, social and economic factors on fishery, and divided Yunnan’s fishery development into four historical stages. From the national perspective, the author analyzed the fishery development situation in Yunnan, and came out with the changing status of Yunnan fishery in the whole nation. At the same time, taking advantage of comparative analysis method, the paper comprehensively analyzed Yunnan’s fishery development practice, experience, achievements, and the existing problems, which laid the theoretical foundation of the following research.Secondly, this paper collected Yunnan’s production index of major aquatic products and state municipal production statistic data for 36 consecutive years from 1978 to 2013, and made respectively quantitative analysis on the production of the province and the sixteen cities. Through establishing the grey coordination model (GM(1,N)) of the fishery production structure in different period, the author made in-depth analysis and comparison on the factors related to fishery development changes during different time segment. The study found that expansion of the area of Yunnan reservoir and pond, as well as the increasing aquaculture yield and other factors, has played a continuously supporting role on the output of aquatic products. The two factors, that is reservoir breeding and aquaculture ponds breeding, contributed 95.04%to the total increment of aquatic production, and the driving effect on the yield increase presented an increasing trend.By using SWOT analysis method, from the overall and macroscopic perspective, this paper made comprehensive and in-depth analysis on the superiority and inferiority, opportunity and risk of Yunnan fishery development, clarify the relations between the reality and potential, conditions and layout, advantages and disadvantages, opportunities and difficulties in the Yunnan fisheries development, and put forward a series of feasible combination of corresponding countermeasures. Based on comprehensive analysis of relevant conclusions, the author put forward some basic ideas about Yunnan freshwater fishery development, namely taking the construction of plateau freshwater fishery Province as the target, taking the fisheries economic development mode change as the main line, adhering to market-orientation, adhering to the support of science and technology, adhering to the principle of "to keep ecological development as priority, to combine the breeding and catching, to make breeding as the main line", according to the requirement "to expand the waters, to revitalize the raising, to strengthen the processing, to activate three production, and to protect ecological environment", taking "reasonable layout, outstanding highlight, multiple collaboration" sustainable fishery development road.This paper also established GM (1,1) model of aquatic product output and econometric forecasting model to conduct prediction research. The two group models were established to verify and supplement each other, and to predict the possible change trend and the aquatic product output target. According to the research, by the year 2020, the total output of aquatic products in Yunnan province would reach 1.19-1.80 million tons. The paper then analyzed the possible ways to realize the goal, and to provide reference advices for the fishery development in Yunnan.Finally, based on the comprehensive analysis of each chapter’s conclusions, this paper focused on the fishery development in Yunnan and puts forward some countermeasures and suggestions of reference value for Yunnan fishery development.The main innovation of this article was as following:(1) Based on the field investigation and the collection of large amount of data, the author systematically analyzed the historical development and structural changes in Yunnan fishing sector. (2) The paper combined the econometrics method, the theory of grey system analysis method and the advantage and disadvantage analysis method (SWOT), and analyzed the development of Yunnan fishery industry from multiple perspectives. This study achieved good effect under the mutual supporting and supplementing of these methods. (3) The paper established the grey coordination model (GM (1, N)) of Yunnan fishery producing structure and the econometric growth forecasting model, combining with the comparative analysis method. The influencing degree of the factors related to the aquatic products growth of the sixteen cities was analyzed. (4) The future growth trend of Yunnan fishery was quantitatively predicted by jointly using the gray system model and econometric model, and the paper put forward the basic idea, targeted countermeasures and suggestions on the fishery development in Yunnan.