The Study On The Influence Of The Energy Price Fluctuation On The National Economy Based On CGE Model

As one of the important inputs for the economic growth, Energy has made the important contribution to our country for the sustained, rapid and healthy development of the national economy. However, our country has become the world’s biggest energy producer and consumer, the problems of energy in our country should not be ignored. The rapid increase in energy consumption makes our country result in increasing external dependency and energy security situation is more and more urgent. In addition, because the fossil energy use in the process emit large amounts of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases and other pollutants, which will put on economic and social sustainable development posing a serious threat, and at present China is the world’s largest emitter of carbon dioxide, and our country’s industrialization process is not over yet. Although in recent years the constant optimization of industrial structure in our country, increasing energy efficiency, energy intensity is declining, but the energy intensive industries in our country still has a considerable proportion of industrial structure, energy efficiency, there is still a big gap compared with developed countries as a result, the energy shortage, environment pollution and economic growth is the contradiction between the construction of a well-off society in an all-round way in front of a major issue. In addition to these problems related to the particular stage of development, another important issue is that the energy price system. Rising energy prices will have a negative impact on economic growth, the government in order to maintain economic growth and social stability to control of energy prices, this has certain rationality, but as the country’s increasing energy security situation, energy conservation and emissions reduction pressure increasing, and the ecological environment bearing capacity of narrowing of the space, the reform of the energy system has become more and more urgent, and energy price system is the key of the energy market system with the core, to rationalize energy price system, as soon as possible, therefore, must to the thorough analysis to the problems existing in the current energy price, with the reform of the way to eliminate barriers, this for the long-term development of China’s energy industry has the vital significance. For this, the third plenary session of the eighteenth big, 18 and sixth meeting all Suggestions to consummate the central finance leading group mainly decided by the market price mechanism, propulsion, such as water, oil, natural gas and electricity price reform, in the field of open competitive price. And reform is sure to produce cost, but without reform costs will be bigger, therefore, to clarify the rising energy prices under the market mechanism will have what effect to the national economy, influence how much, how to eliminate these effects is very important. In view of this, based on economics, environmental economics, welfare economics, the walrasian general equilibrium, social accounting matrix, government regulation and computable. general equilibrium theory, the application of input-output, cross entropy, GAMS and other research methods, application of CGE theory to build the 21 department energy CGE model, using the theory of SAM constructs our country macroscopic and 21 2010 department of micro SAM table, and the energy inputs into coal mining and washing industry, coke industry, oil industry, oil processing industry, gas industry, gas production and supply industry, fire electric power eight department of energy and clean energy, and using GAMS software. Write a program to reform energy prices on the price and output in 21 sectors, business investment and consumer spending, energy consumption and energy intensity, carbon emissions and clean energy investment and GDP, simulates and analyses the residents’ welfare and other macroeconomic variables. Finally, in view of energy price reform’s influence on national economy in our country, puts forward the taxes, energy saving, government subsidies, such as policy, and policy simulation are carried out using CGE model.In the first chapter, this article first introduces the source of paper, the research background and research significance, the research status at home and abroad were reviewed and analyzed, and aiming at the shortcomings of the above research are reviewed, then the paper introduces the main content and main method, and list the thesis research ideas and technical route.In the second chapter, analyze the energy prices of pricing mechanism in our country, analyzed the history of the pricing mechanism of energy prices, existing problems and the direction of the reform, form the realistic foundation of my research. On the basis of analyzing the theory of energy price effect, and then to CGE theory and SAM theory are introduced, application of the above theory to build energy CGE model and SAM table price, energy price reform and research on the influence of the national economy.In the third chapter, first to the energy prices of CGE model production module, the module price, trade module, body module and balanced module and residents welfare module are analyzed in detail. In production and price module, the energy input key part is divided into primary energy and secondary energy were studied. Synthesize energy demand by CES function is decomposed into synthetic fossil energy and electric energy synthesis of demand, and synthesize fossil energy demand through the CES function is further subdivided into three demand for coal, oil and gas, coal, oil, natural gas will further synthetic demand through the CES function is further subdivided into mining of coal, coke, oil, refined oil, natural gas and gas six demand, synthesize electric power demand at the same time through the CES function is subdivided into two thermal power and clean energy demand. Input-output table in 2010, as the main data base, built in 2010, the macro SAM table, and aimed at the special requirements of energy price CGE model, this paper constructed containing coal mining and washing industry, coke industry, oil industry, oil processing industry, gas industry, gas production and supply industry, fire electric power eight department of energy and clean energy micro social accounting matrix, especially the 2010 input-output table of oil processing and coking industry into two departments, oil processing and coking industry will "electricity and heat production and supply industry" into thermal power production and supply industry, clean energy, two departments, and the intermediate input departments merger, highlight the energy-intensive sectors. Then the energy prices are needed for the CGE model calibration coefficient of elasticity of substitution. Finally, the CGE model’s solving steps are introduced. Through to contain a CGE model of energy and secondary energy and building of SAM table, for the further scientific research the relationship between energy and economy provides a possible, also laid the foundation model and data for further research.In the fourth chapter, according to the special situation of China’s energy price system, a basic open energy market, and the secondary energy is still affected by different levels of government regulation, therefore, through the above the segmentation to build up the energy prices of CGE model and SAM Table, from secondary energy price market mechanism and government regulation under the two scenarios for primary energy price fluctuations to the national economy are studied, the influence of the two scenarios the next energy price fluctuations impact on national economy on the basis of the comparison, from the Angle of market mechanism, the secondary energy price fluctuations on the impact of the national economy, the energy price fluctuations are analyzed in detail and price to the output of each sector, business investment and consumer spending, energy consumption and energy intensity, carbon emissions and clean energy investment and income, enterprise, government revenue, total investment and total savings, total imports and exports, nominal GDP and real GDP, interest rate and exchange rate, price index and the change of residents’ welfare and other macroeconomic variables.In the fifth chapter, in this paper, based on the above research conclusion, energy price marketization reform is the transformation of the mode of development, the necessary request to deal with environmental challenges, however, the energy price marketization will bring economic growth, social stability and residents welfare a series of negative effects. This article first analyzes the tax policy, namely the reduction of coal, oil and gas exploitation enterprise value-added tax department of price and output of each industry and the impact of macroeconomic variables. And then analyzes the energy-saving policy, namely to improve energy efficiency and technical progress, improving energy efficiency and technical progress even though there may be a rebound effect on energy consumption, but can significantly reduce energy intensity, and the energy price marketization reform in our country, the policy can reduce the combination of fossil energy consumption, and can achieve the goal of residents to increase output and welfare. Then analyzes the government subsidy policy, namely, optimize the industrial subsidies and residential electricity reform, in order to make subsidies more efficient, variable production subsidies side to the consumption side, energy-intensive industry subsidies for high value-added industries, agricultural subsidies, in order to make residents ladder price both efficiency and fairness, must reform the existing ladder price mechanism, increase the number of steps and the gap, to make the government subsidies can be more targeted, and can restrain the luxury of the rich energy consumption. Finally, based on the current energy price downward situation, analyzed the energy prices downward price and output of each industrial sector and the influence of macroeconomic variables, proposed should seize the opportunity of the current energy price downward, rationalize energy price system in our country as soon as possible.In the sixth chapter, based on the above research, summarizes the research conclusion and the main innovation points, including the macro social accounting matrix constructed in China in 2010 and include coal mining and washing industry, coke industry, oil industry, oil processing industry, gas industry, gas production and supply industry, fire electric power eight department of energy and clean energy micro social accounting matrix; Built a production and price module composed of level 7 nested CES function energy prices CGE model, and using GAMS software. Write a program, from the perspective of secondary energy market mechanism and government regulation to simulate the primary energy price fluctuations on the impact of the national economy, from the point of view of market mechanism to simulate the secondary energy price fluctuations on the impact of the national economy, the concrete analysis to the department of price, output, investment, consumption, energy consumption and carbon emissions and the effects of macroeconomic variables such as GDP, residents welfare; System analyzes the countermeasures on the impact of energy price reform on the national economy, analyzed the energy mining corporate tax breaks for output and macroeconomic variables in the price of each department, the department of energy consumption and energy saving policy variables and the effect of optimization of government subsidies to the department of energy consumption and macroeconomic variables, the effects of the current energy price downward to output and macroeconomic variables in the price of each department.