Study On Supply Chain Emergency Management Based On Computational Experiment

In recent years, with the gradual popularization of mass collaboration on a global scale, supply chain is becoming more and more complex; On the other hand, all kinds of unexpected incidents occurred frequently, which make the supply chain accompanied with the great uncertainty and disruption risk. This paper, based on supply chain emergency as the research object, analyzed the mechanism of emergency supply chain risk and its impact on supply chain management activities and agent behavior, developed supply chain computational experiment platform, and used computational experiment to research the supply chain emergency risk evolution process and law from the microscopic agent behavior to the macroscopic system and its management measures. Specific content and conclusions are as follows:(l)The formation and effect mechanism analysis of the supply chain emergency.Using the scenario analysis, li & fung trading case, it describes how to identify supply chain emergency factors, so as to provide effective help for preventing and responding to supply chain emergency. On this basis, it analyses the supply chain emergency influence on supply chain management activities, including failure pattern, the diffusion effect, master-slave relations game, inventory model and network structure, etc., and puts forward the emergency response to the supply chain management framework.Finally it illustrates theory and practical significance of using computational experiment method to study the supply chain emergency management.(2)Demand disruption transfer and diffusion mechanism in the supply chain. This paper studies the the transfer effect and the rule of demand disruption caused by the emergency in the supply chain, based on computational experiment method establishes the multistage supply chain calculation model, analyzes the demand disruption evolution process and transfer mechanism in the supply chain, and calculates the elasticity coefficient of disruption related to supply chain subject index variable. Experiment results show that the disruption in the process of the general supply chain transmission has a certain scale-up and delayed, disruption to the upstream is greater than the influence of to the downstream, but having higher profit is downstream(regardless of whether the core enterprise), which is for our further effectively coping with emergencies pointing out the direction.(3)The influence of agent different risk preference to supply chain performance. By assuming that the retailers’ risk attitude is divided into three types of risk appetite, risk neutral and risk aversion, this paper uses computational experiment method to study and analyze the impact of the retailers’ different risk attitudes toward risk on their average profit, customer service level and suppler number in the existence of supply disruption risk cases, the results show that the interrupt probability with number of suppliers is a positive relationship, but with customer service level is an inverse relationship, risk aversion type enterprise has higher average profit, the average customer service level and the number of suppliers. This can give some help for coping with supply disruption risks.(4)Supply chain experiment platform development based on computational experiment method. This chapter uses computational experiment ideas and methods to establish a standardized model of engineering for supply chain management research, with the systematic carding on the operation process of supply chain, establishing corresponding rules and processes, setting up the general framework of the basic problems of supply chain research. Then we can quickly build a number of supply chain management scenes on the basis of the framework functionality through free customization and extension, so as to carry on coputational experiment study. The platform can reduce the threshold of the supply chain problems using computational experiment method to study, and also can provide it with unified modeling standards and specifications.(5)Study on disruption management of supply chain. Emergency is an important factor resulting in supply disruption risk. From the angle of risk management, we build supply disruption emergency management model of supply chain by using computational experiment in this paper, and discuss which mechanism can bring the better effect for supply disruption. The results mainly show that risk monitoring, risk identification, risk control and risk evaluation mechanism based on the case-based reasoning can effectively deal with supply disruption risk, bringing more profit and better service level for enterprises, and on the demand disruption cycle, the more enterprises in the same market condition are subject to demand management, may cause excessive reaction to the market, bring the lower profits, so manufacturer and retailers should information sharing, leading by the manufacturer joint decision, formulate unified management plan so as to better cope with the impact of demand disruption.