An Emergency Decision-Making Study For Supply Chain Disruption Management Based On Scenario Analysis

In the past 10 years, various types of emergency and disruption incidents frequently occurred, including terrorist attacks, local wars, earthquakes, tsunamis, fire disasters, economic crisis, global epidemic disease, strikes and computer virus attacks etc. These low-probability and high-risk incidents made tremendous impacts on the social economy, and made many companies suffer the losses from supply shortage or discontinuity. The normal running of supply chain system was also disturbed or harmed by the disruption. The lean production, JIT, agile manufacturing and other modern supply chain management technology are in access to "eliminate waste, reduce costs, shorten product development cycles", which also exacerbate the vulnerability of the supply chain. Business environment of economic globalization and increasingly complex supply chain structure make this vulnerability more exposure to the uncertain events or disruptions, and also challenge the risk and disruption mitigation capability of supply chain system. The contradiction between the frequency of disruptions and supply chain vulnerability becomes prominent increasingly. So making research of supply chain disruption management and establishing reasonable and effective emergency response decision-making system facilitate the entities in supply chain system to develop stably and steadily in high-risk modern society.This paper studies the emergency response decision-making process for supply chain disruption management and aims to establish a more effective supply chain emergency decision-making mechanism. It changes the traditional decision-making idea like"prediction-control"pattern, proposes a new model of emergency decision-making based on Scenario Analysis.This paper is divided into five chapters. Each chapter's main content is as follows:Chapter 1 is the introduction of the whole paper. It introduces the background and significance of the study, and then demonstrates the framework of the paper.Chapter 2 is the literature review. It reviews the relevant theory from three aspects: supply chain risk management, supply chain disruption management and scenario analysis in emergency management.Chapter 3 mainly proposes a conceptual model of scenario analysis from a qualitative point of view and makes an explorative discussion on the scenario features, the process of scenario analysis and the scenario building approaches. This part also discusses scenario analysis as a way of thinking to identify weak links of supply chain and to improve supply chain emergency management ability. The results provide theoretical basis for further study on scenario-response plan for emergency decision of supply chain.Chapter 4 is about a case study of Shanghai Expo cold drink supply chain which demonstrates an emergency decision-making process of supply chain disruption with the changing scenario. The paper introduced the concept of scenario factor, and structures a two-stage model including normal ordering and emergency replenishment process in single cycle.Chapter 5 is the summary of the whole paper. First it summarizes the main research conclusion, and then demonstrates the future research direction.