Research On Emergency Strategies Of Supply Chain Under Two Factors Non-Simultaneous Disruption

With the continuous progress of science and technology and rapid development of economics in the21st century, international division of labor and international trade are launching a larger scale and greater depth. Global supply chain comes into being based on the deepening and refinement of international division, especially the growth of Intra-product Specialization. Then enterprises of different countries are working more closely, which promotes the development of international trade greatly. However, when an emergency occurs, which will affect the production and operation of the enterprise in the global supply chain. At this time, the enterprises upstream and downstream, even the global supply chain will be affected if the decision-makers can not make emergency decisions quickly and effectively.At present, the study about emergency strategies when the supply chain is disrupted focuses on the cases of single factor disruption and Multi-factor simultaneous disruptions. However, the affects that emergency to supply chain in practice usually appears step by step, so the enterprises need to adjust the production and marketing decisions in real time by actual circumstances. This paper considered a two-level supply chain involving one manufacturer and one retailer. Based on linear demand function, we studied the optimal production and marketing emergency strategies in order to make the supply chain return to normal operating condition when manufacturer cost and market demand are disrupted one after another.Firstly, we studied the optimal production and marketing emergency strategies in centralized supply chain and coordination mechanism in decentralized supply chain with the manufacturer as the leader to play Stackelberg game when the manufacturer cost was disrupted independently. The conclusion indicates that the optimal production quantity and the optimal retail price both keep unchanged when the disruption is not too large. Then we built a demand disruption supply chain model with the manufacturer cost had been disrupted to study the optimal production quantity and the optimal retail price emergency strategies. After that, we built a model in which the manufacturer cost disruption following the demand disruption to study the emergency strategies. We drew the conclusion as follows. The optimal production is positively correlated with the market demand, while has negative correlation to the manufacturer cost; the optimal retail price changes in the same direction as both the demand disruption and the manufacturer cost disruption. The optimal production quantity has certain robustness under both the two stages of disruptions, and for each case of the first stage, the optimal product quantity has certain robustness in the second stage in which the output plan keeps unchanged. The optimal retail price only has robustness under manufacturer cost disruption no matter which stage the disruption occurs. At last, this paper gave the emergency strategies for each case of disruption, and then a numerical example was given to illustrate our analysis.