The Analysis And Research On The Comprehensive Grain Production Capacity And Safety Construction In Liaoning Province

In this study, the statistic data andempirical materialsabout food production between 1978 and 2010 were analyzed forinvestigating thedeveloping ruleand synthetic production ability of food production in Liaoning province. Also, the significant effective factors ofsynthetic production ability of food were screened out for establishing theoretic mathematic models. This model could be applied to predictand assesssown area of food, total yield of grain, per unit yield of food and changeable trend of relationship between supply and demand of food of Liaoning province in the year of 2015,2020,2030 and 2050. The results in details could be shown as follows:1 As a whole, the total food yield was gradually increasing since 1979 to 2010. However, there were three different stages for developing tread of food yields, namely, rapid increasing stage (1979-1993), fluctuating stage (1993-2001), low increasing stage (2001 until now). The major developing property in every stageas yield increasing of 3 million ton had been found in both first two stages.2 The total food yield could be related to yield of different cereals, and yield contribution ability was in the order of maize> rice>potato> sorghum> wheat> soybean>millet> other cereals; and the yields of first three foods were correlated to total food yield at<5% significant level.The yield contribution factors were in the order of per unit yield of food> fertilizer applying amount> planting area Scientific and technological level>total power of agricultural machinery= disaster area>rural electricity consumption>agricultural workforce>effective irrigation area; and per unit yield of food and fertilizer applying amount were two significant factors in controllingtotal food yield. The per unit yield of food was negatively significantly correlated to disaster area and positively agricultural workforce.3 The linear regression relationship between total food yield in Liaoning province and in 14 cities of this province showed that contribution ability of yield for different cities was in the order of Shenyang>Tieling> Jinzhou> Fuxin>Chaoyang> Dalian> Anshan >Panjin>Huludao> Dandong> Liaoyang>Yingkou> Fushun> Benxi.4 The predictive model based on consumption structure of food of Liaoning province was established, and showed that population, feed food, industrial use of food were increasing, however, food food consumption was decreasing, and seed food and loss food were comparatively stable in future 40 years.5 The average unit yield and total yield of food in Liaoning province were predicted using five different functions (logistic, power function, Asymptotic regression, Gauss and Cubics Ratio), and results showed that average unit yieldcould be stable at6500 kg/hm2 in2020,7200 kg/hm2 in 2030,7900 kg/hm2 in 2040, and 8600 kg/hm2 in 2050; total yield of foodcould be stable at 0.2 billion ton in 2025, and 0.25 billion ton in 2050. The total food yield can fulfill rigid food consumption at least without considering the food demand for production.6 These models were extremely useful for food safety warning of Liaoningprovince, and could be used as a tool of food safety risk assessment.