The Dynamic Evaluation And Analysis Of Agricultural Comprehensive Production Capacity In Heilongjiang

Agriculture is the foundation of the national economy, and it’s the important guarantee of economic development and social stability. Agriculture comprehensive production capacity is the main reflection of agricultural production in a nation or regional. Improving the agricultural comprehensive production is the basic engineering of ensuring national food security, consolidating agricultural sustainable development and promoting rural prosperity and stability.In recent years, the development of agriculture especially the food production of Heilongjiang Province has made brilliant achievements, agricultural comprehensive production capacity has been leaps and bounds, and made outstanding contributions to the protection of national food security and promoting agricultural development. Previous studies have focused on the static evaluation analysis of a particular year or years’11agricultural comprehensive production capacity, and they can’t avoid the impact of the volatility of good year or bad year. So the overall and dynamic analysis of the agricultural comprehensive production capacity and its elements’level, development trend and the short board in Heilongj iang Province is of great significance for the promotion of agricultural development gradually embarked on a comprehensive, coordinated and sustainable path of development. The main work of this paper is as follows:1) On the basic of the elaborate of agricultural comprehensive production capacity’s concept and content, the agricultural comprehensive production capacity is divided into three factors such as resources, support and effectiveness factor by the whole analysis. The resource element is divided into the total amount of resource and per capita resource. The support element is divided into agricultural investment in fixed assets, production inputs, investment in science and technology, impact of environmental. The effectiveness factor is divided into three aspects of indicators of economic, social, and environmental. Then this paper establishes a more complete evaluation indexes system.2) Making a static evaluation of the status of agricultural comprehensive production capacity in Heilongjiang Province. This paper combined the index system of all aspects of the agricultural comprehensive production capacity, and obtained status data of all indexes in recent years, then analysised the status of agricultural development in Heilongjiang Province. And the result shows that Heilongjiang Province is rich in agricultural resources, the agricultural production factor inputs is increasing, fanners’ income and agricultural output are also increasing year by year. The modernization of agriculture is greatly accelerated. However, the development style of significant increase in the consumption of resources has not changed, and it has hindered the sustainable development of agriculture in to some extent.3) Making the dynamic evaluation and analysis of agricultural comprehensive production capability. This paper used the analytic hierarchy process to determine the weight of each index combined with the data from1999to2010and collecting the statistical data for nearly12years, then used the regression prediction model to predict in order to avoid numerical year for good and bad volatility. After standardizing the forecast data, calculated the score of agricultural comprehensive production capability and its elements on the basic of weight. This paper maked a dynamic evaluation and analysis of the trend of agricultural comprehensive production capability and its elements. The result is that the comprehensive development of agricultural, resource guarantee capability, production support capability and production efficiency capability has different degrees of growth in Heilongjiang province. But over-reliance on the consumption of resources extensive mode of production, aging infrastructure and other reasons had resulted in a slow growth rate of agricultural resources, more serious damage to the environment, and agricultural disaster prevention and resilience is weakened, which are caused the instability of agricultural development and affecting the sustainable development of agriculture.4) Puts forward corresponding countermeasures on the basic of evaluation of static status and dynamic trend evaluation. In the view of resource elements, to strengthen the protection and utilization of resources, improve resources guarantee capability by enhancing the land carrying capacity-building and taking orderly advancing of Agricultural Scale Management. In the view of support elements, starting from the investment, production, technology and environment aspect by enhancing investment boost, strengthen infrastructure construction and production inputs, speeding up technological innovation, improving workers’ quality, strengthening ecological protection and enhance environmental awareness. In the view of output efficiency elements, the countermeasures to develop the efficiency capacity are optimizing the industrial structure of agriculture and further developing the agricultural industrialized operations. This subject was a combination of theoretical analysis and practical application and has important theoretical and practical significance, and hoped to provide a reference for the theoretical study of the agricultural comprehensive production capacity and government policymakers.