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Research On The Relationship Between Industrial Structure And Employment Structure In The Yangtze River Delta

Posted on:2015-01-14Degree:DoctorType:Dissertation
Country:ChinaCandidate:Q Y ZhaoFull Text:PDF
GTID:1109330467975107Subject:Labor economics
Abstract/Summary:PDF Full Text Request
Yangtze River Delta region has always played a leading role in national development on the new journey of reform and opening up. Coordinated development of the Yangtze River Delta industrial structure and employment structure is not only related to the further development of the regional economy, and even affect China’s industrial structure and employment structure optimization direction. Over the years, the industrial structure has been upgrading in the Yangtze River Delta region, but the development pace of employment structure has been lagging behind the industrial structure. Imbalance exists between the industrial structure and employment structure will lead to distorted allocation of resources, waste a lot of labor resources, while irrational employment structure in turn affect the adjustment of industrial structure. Shanghai became the first experimental zone of free trade as a new platform in2013, Shanghai Free Trade Area will bring new development opportunities for coordinated development of the Yangtze River Delta industrial structure and employment structure. In the context, research of the evolution, the degree of coordination, imbalance factors and trends of the Yangtze River Delta industrial structure and employment structure is an extremely important practical urgency.In this paper, the research subject is the Yangtze River Delta industrial structure and employment structure, the thesis is the evolution of industrial structure and employment structure, the degree of coordination, imbalance of factors and trends, the research methods includes literature research, descriptive statistics (including statistical charts, statistical figures, mean, standard deviation), the methods of Artificial Neural Network, Correlation Analysis, Employment Elasticity, Eomparative Labor Productivity, Structural Deviation as well as Partial Least Squares Path Analysis Model. The empirical study is conducted with Excel, Eviews, Matlab.The whole paper is arranged in the status of the evolution, the degree of coordination, imbalance factors and trends of the Yangtze River Delta industrial structure and employment structure and is divided into seven sections.The first two sections of the paper are the theoretical basis stage. The main task is to build the research base from the theory aspect. Section1and Section2base on relevant literature at home and abroad, analysis both from the perspective of the relationship between industrial structure and employment structure and methods, defined on the basis of the connotation and characteristics of industrial structure and employment structure. to construct this article research framework.Section3is the Yangtze River Delta Regional industrial structure and employment structure evolution and problem analysis. This chapter analyzes the evolution process of the Yangtze River Delta industrial structure and employment structure since the reform and opening up, and summarizes the revelation by historical experience of industrial structure and employment structure evolution brought by developed countries and regions. The studies show that the pattern of industrial structure transfers from " secondary industry, primary industry, tertiary industry" to " secondary industry, tertiary industry, primary industry" in the Yangtze River Delta region, while the pattern of employment structure transfers from " primary industry, secondary industry, tertiary industry" to " secondary industry, tertiary industry, primary industry" in the Yangtze River Delta region. The evolution of industrial structure of developed countries and regions are follow Petty Clark’s Law, and the evolution of employment structure is divided into two categories: one is the employment structure from the "primary industry, secondary industry, tertiary industry" first to " secondary industry, tertiary industry, primary industry", and then to" tertiary industry, secondary industry, primary industry"; the other is from the primary industry, secondary industry, tertiary industry" directly into " tertiary industry, secondary industry, primary industry"Section4is coordinated analysis of the Yangtze River Delta Regional industrial structure and employment structure. This chapter first discuss the interaction mechanism between the industrial structure and employment structure, and then use the correlation coefficient, the employment elasticity, comparative labor productivity, structural deviation to analyze1978-2011industrial structure and employment structure in the Yangtze River Delta region. Finally, based on gray relational theory building employment lag model. The results show that the primary industry has pressure on the labor employment, a large number of surplus labor force continued to the second and tertiary industries, the role of the tertiary industry to absorb surplus labor is significantly stronger than the primary and the secondary industry. In addition, The employment structure lags industrial structure and the lag time is three years.Section5is the influence factors of unbalanced between industrial structure and employment structure of the Yangtze River Delta Region. Building partial least squares regression equation path analysis model, the following basic conclusions:First of all, the influence factors have differences and similarities. The same positive influence factors are:the development strategy of industrialization, technological progress, opening up and demand structure, The same negative influence factors are:the degree of marketization, urbanization level and quality of labor. Second, the importance of the influence factors is different. The development strategy of industrialization and the development strategy of industrialization are more important than other influence factors, indicating the development of rational industrial development strategies and increasing the degree of marketization is the fundamental way to the Yangtze River Delta Regional industrial structure and employment structure coordinated development.Technological progress, opening up and are the second important influence factors. Demand structure quality of labor are on the third or fourth level of importance.Section6is the trend of industrial structure and employment structure prediction of Yangtze River Delta Region.This chapter build a BP Artificial Neural Network Model of industrial structure and employment structure to predict the evolution within the scope of changes of per capita GDP from70000to200000yuan. the result shows that:first, with the increase in per capita GDP, the pattern of the industrial structure and employment structure both transfer from secondary industry, tertiary industry, primary industry’" to" tertiary industry, secondary industry, primary industry". Second, the pattern of the industrial structure changed earlier than the employment structure. Third, when the Yangtze River Delta region and developed counties increase to the same level of per capita GDP, the lagging extent of the industrial structure and employment structure of Yangtze River Delta region is much larger than the others.Section7is summarizes the conclusions and puts forward the suggestions. We summarize the evolution, the degree of coordination, imbalance factors and trends of the Yangtze River Delta Regional industrial structure and employment structure, and put forward corresponding countermeasures and suggestions to indicate further research directions.The innovations of this paper include the three aspects:First, this paper studies Chinese regional coordinated development of industrial structure and employment structure. The existing researches seldom compare and analyze the coordinated development of industrial structure and employment structure from a regional perspective. After becoming the first experimental zone of free trade in2013, Shanghai Free Trade Area will bring new development opportunities for coordinated development of the Yangtze River Delta industrial structure and employment structure. Coordinated development of the Yangtze River Delta industrial structure and employment structure is not only related to the further development of the regional economy and even affect China’s industrial structure and employment structure optimization direction. As a result, summing up the different characteristics of the Yangtze River Delta Regional industrial structure and employment structure not only riches and developments the industrial structure and employment structure research direction, but also provides a meaningful reference for the relevant departments.Second, this paper introduces intelligent prediction method to analyze the development trend of the future Yangtze River Delta regional industrial structure and employment structure. Fewer existing literature studied the future development of industrial structure and employment structure, the only existing research make nation as a research object, the trend forecast for the Yangtze River Delta industrial structure and employment structure is still in the blank. Based on BP Artificial Neural Network Model and the relevant statistical data from1990to2011, we predict the evolution within the scope of changes of per capita GDP from70000to200000yuan. the result shows that:first, with the increase in per capita GDP, the pattern of the industrial structure and employment structure both transfer from secondary industry, tertiary industry, primary industry" to" tertiary industry, secondary industry, primary industry". Second, the pattern of the industrial structure changed earlier than the employment structure. Third, when the Yangtze River Delta region and developed counties increase to the same level of per capita GDP, the lagging extent of the industrial structure and employment structure of Yangtze River Delta region is much larger than the others.Third, Building partial least squares regression equation path analysis model to analyze the influence factors of unbalanced between industrial structure and employment structure of the Yangtze River Delta Region. Existing Literature do not analyze the influence factors of unbalance from the Yangtze River Delta Region. this paper systematic analyze the industrial development strategy, the quality of labor, technological progress, the level of urbanization and other factors influence the direction and degree of coordination of industrial structure and employment structure in the Yangtze River Delta region, the empirical results show that:First of all, the influence factors have differences and similarities. The same positive influence factors are:the development strategy of industrialization, technological progress, opening up and demand structure, The same negative influence factors are:the degree of marketization, urbanization level and quality of labor. Second, the importance of the influence factors is different. The development strategy of industrialization and the development strategy of industrialization are more important than other influence factors. indicating the development of rational industrial development strategies and increasing the degree of marketization is the fundamental way to the Yangtze River Delta regional industrial structure and employment structure coordinated development.Technological progress, opening up and are the second important influence factors. Demand structure quality of labor are on the third or fourth level of importance.There are some deficiencies in this paper. Firstly, The gap in economic development between Shanghai, Jiangsu and Zhejiang will affect research the accuracy and reliability of the conclusions. In this paper, the degree of internal economic development in the Yangtze River Delta region is not the same, the gap in economic development between Shanghai, Jiangsu and Zhejiang will affect research the accuracy and reliability of the conclusions. Secondly, The available data limits the the accuracy and reliability of research. In this paper, the study of factors affecting the coordination of the industrial structure and employment structure in the Yangtze River Delta region using a partial least squares path analysis model, but due to the continuous adjustment of the statistical system of provinces, we can not get all the significant variables for each year since1978, only to choose the statistical data from1994to2011. Apparently, there are some errors. In addition, the non-uniform statistical system of the Yangtze River Delta and the interior provinces result in a lack of appropriate indicators data, we only using a number of other variables to reflect indirectly the significant variables, there will still be some limitations in the conclusion.
Keywords/Search Tags:Yangtze River Delta region, Industrial Structure, Employment Structure, Relationship
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