A Study On Biomass Energy Utilization And Development Prediction In Beijing Rural Area

Biomass energy is a renewable energy. Compared with conventional fossil energy it has the advantages of large in quantity, being clean and easy to obtain. The development of biomass energy industry can not only ease the serious shortage situation of fossil energy supply, but also improve and protect ecological environment. It can also expand agricultural function and promote regional economy so that increases peasants income. However, because of being lack of large-scale agricultural production, poor survey and information accumulation of biomass resources and utilization technologies in rural, the basic data and the in-depth understanding of biomass energy reserves and utilization results are in bad need for establishing scientific and reasonable policy to promote further biomass energy utilization in Beijing rural area.Aiming at this problem, the biomass energy reserves and utilization effectiveness in Beijing rural area are studied through basic data survey, theoretical analysis, field research, mathematical modeling in this paper.First of all, by collecting and analyzing the relataed data, the distribution of biomass resources in Beijing is obtained, a new comlex index system which consists of physical quantity, marketing and comprehensive economy factors is proposed and is usd to assess the biomass resources in Beijing with the full consideration with its energy characteristics and the relationship between application technology and market for ensuring the results more accurate and objective. The results showed that Beijing area is rich in biomass resources, the maximum usable amount up to 9 million tons. In terms of the absolute amount, Daxing District has the most abundant straw resources reserves and availability, Tongzhou District has the most abundant of usable resources, Miyun County has the most abundant manure resources and Pinggu District has the most abundant fruit tree pruning. In terms of the relative amount, the most abundant straw resources is Tongzhou which resource density is 186.58 t/km2. The most abundant manure resource is Daxing which resource density is 903.3 tce/km2. The most abundant fruit tree pruning resources is Pinggu which resource density is 60.72 tce/km2.Choosing grey GM(1.1) model, exponential smoothing model as basic prediction models for biomass resource prediction and with the use of the data between 2001 and 2012, the model contants are obtained. It is found that both these two models will produce certain prediction error. To reduce the error and increase the model robustness, the combined prediction model based on the basic models is proposed by comparing and analyzing the advantages and disadvantages of mathematical prediction methods. The combined prediction model is then used to predict the biomass energy reserves during 2015-2022 in Beijing. It was found that, during this period, agricultural residues as biomass energy reserves will continue to rise. Compared with 2013, agricultural residue biomass energy reserves will be increased by 95% in the year 2022, and the forestry residues and animal excrement as biomass energy reserves will continue to decline. Therefore, without large change in the structure of rural farming and animal husbandry in future, the development of straw direct fired power generation, briquetting and gasification and the other agricultural residue biomass-related utilization technologies should be emphasized in the short-tomid period. Furthermore, in the prediction period the usable amount of the livestock excrement is huge and it consists the largest portion of the total biomass energy in Beijing. In the medium term the technology of excrement-fermentation gasification is the largest potential biomass energy utilization technologies among various rural areas in Beijing.Finally, through document research, interview research, telephone research, questionnaire and other methods, the application status and influencing factors of biomass resources in Beijing is studied. The effects of the biomass resources technology application on peasant family economical characteristics and energy expenditure aspects were focused. The results show that the main factors that influence a peasant family choosing a biomass energy technology are age, educational level and family income. The overall household fuel expenses decrease after the biomass gasification and biogas centralized-gas supply were used. However, the overall household fuel expenses may vary significantly in different county after a peasant family uses biomass stove. As a whole in Beijing, although the use of biomass stoves caused a slight increase in the household fuel cost, it greatly reduced the coal consumption, which means significant environmental benefits.The results of this paper have a strong reference value for the development of biomass energy industry policy, promotion and application of biomass energy technology in Beijing rural area.