| Global climate change drives countries worldwide to follow the path of low-carbon development. The transportation sector generates the second most carbon dioxide that over 20% of the global carbon emissions come from transportation. And the carbon emissions in the transportation sector will increase by 1.7% annually till 2030. The growth rates of carbon emissions in the transportation sector among developing countries and countries with their economies in transition will be higher. In order to solve the increasingly prominent contradiction between supply and demand of fuel and environmental pollution, the global major automobile manufacturing countries have accelerated the deployment of developing new energy vehicles as their national strategies. With the development of China’s economy, continuous process of urbanization, increasement in travel demand, the production and sales of automobiles grow rapidly which makes China ranked the first in automobile production and marketing for seven consecutive years in the world. Therefore, the development of new energy vehicles becomes an important breakthrough to deal with energy security, climate change, environmental protection and automotive industry’s upgrading.China has promulgated a series of policy on new energy vehicles, including macro planning, manufacturing standards, facilities’ construction, purchase subsidies, tariffs, electricity price and support in other aspects. Supporting policies have boosted the development and growth of new energy vehicle industry. Meanwhile, those policies have also caused some problems that the promotion of new energy vehicles is heavily dependent on government’s support and have market deficiencies. However, with the maturing of technologies, new energy vehicles will inevitably transit from depending on the government subsidies to market mechanisms. Therefore, how to effectively utilize the market potential and keep the healthy and rapid development of new energy vehicles become important issues of great research value under the "new economy" in China.Therefore, it is necessary to pay great attention to the new trends of new energy vehicles’ policies in the future, to actively explore the possible favorable and unfavorable factors in new energy vehicles’ market diffusion, to simulate the market diffusion by using simulation methods and to arrive at a comprehensive consideration and multidimensional policies to support the development of new energy vehicle industry. The research results will be conducive to promote the green development of new energy vehicle industry in China and to make the new energy vehicle market transit from depending on the governmental policies to depending on the mass consumer in order to achieve the grand strategic goals in energy vehicle industry.In this dissertation, low-carbon transportation is used as the research background. Firstly, the carbon emission trend in the transportation sector in China is analyzed to identify the main factors affecting the carbon emissions. Secondly, through comparative analysis of the development process and policies of new energy vehicles home and abroad, the bottleneck the development of new energy vehicle market in China was found. Thirdly, the market diffusion of new energy vehicles in China is systematically and comprehensively studied based on the innovative product’s diffusion theory, social network theory and consumer behavior theory. Fourthly, the agent-based market diffusion model of new energy vehicles is built according to the practical problems in promoting new energy vehicles after systematic analysis on participants affecting the market diffusion of new energy vehicles in China and measure out the energy conservation and emission reduction potentials for the development of new energy vehicles based on the simulation results. Finally, implications and policy recommendations in promoting new energy vehicles are suggested.According to the above research ideas, large amount of historical data and several methods and techniques are used in this dissertation. The research results are as follows.(1) Through literature research on low-carbon transportation, new energy vehicles, innovative product diffusion and consumer behavior, it is found that the diffusion of new energy vehicles gradually becomes the research direction of scholars but there are few studies on the market diffusion of new energy vehicles. Besides, study on the exploration of new energy vehicle development’s transiting from depending on government support to depending on market by using simulation tools has not been reported.(2) The energy consumption and carbon emissions in the transportation sector in China are calculated by using historic statistical data during 1996-2013. It is found that the consumption of diesel and gasoline is the main cause of carbon emissions’growth in the transportation sector in China and the carbon emissions caused by diesel and gasoline show a growing trend. Based on the expanded Kaya identity, a multivariate generalized Fisher index decomposition model is built to measure the influence of factors on carbon emissions in the transportation sector in China. The results show that economic growth contributed the most to the carbon emissions’ growth in the transportation sector, followed by energy intensity, population size and transportation intensity. Therefore, to transform the automobile industry into a "green development" industry is the only way to develop low-carbon transportation.(3) Based on the analysis on factors affecting the market diffusion of new energy vehicles, agent-based market diffusion model of new energy vehicles under multi-product competition is built. In order to simulate consumers’ purchasing decision-making process, consumers’ purchasing motive function is constructed according to the future trend of the market. Besides, small-world network is built to simulate word of mouth among consumers. In this dissertation, NetLogo is used in the ordinary and scenario simulations of new energy vehicle market during 2016-2022 in China and sensitivity analysis on new energy vehicles’ prices and convenience. The simulation results show that new products will intensify the competition in new energy vehicle market which is helpful to the market diffusion of new energy vehicles. It is also found that the market diffusion of battery electric vehicles is superior to hybrid electric vehicles. As time goes by, battery electric vehicles become dominant in the market that the market share of battery electric vehicles and hybrid electric vehicles in 2022 are 75% and 25% respectively. And consumers tend to purchase low-cost battery electric vehicles in the short term. Besides, sensitivity analysis on new energy vehicles’ prices and convenience show that prices have greater influence on the market diffusion of new energy vehicles.(4) The energy saving and emission reduction potentials of new energy vehicles during 2016-2022 are assessed according to the methods in the calculation of energy consumption and carbon emission in the transportation sector based on the simulation results of the market share and the quantities of battery electric vehicles and hybrid electric vehicles, consumers’ daily travel distances and the propotions of each type of distance through questionnaire survey, fuel consumption rates of trational automobiles and hybrid electric vehicles and other related data. The results show that with new energy vehicles’ replacement of trational automobiles,11.482 million tons of gasoline will be saved and 11.801 million tons of carbon will be reduced.(5) According to experiences on the development of new energy vehicles home and abroad and the simulation results, a package of policy proposals are put forward to promote new energy vehicles in China. Firstly, our country should strengthen the publicity and guidance for new energy vehicles, including increasing consumers’ identity on new energy vehicles, focusing on strengthening young people’s propaganda, expanding the demonstration effect of government procurement and the scope of pilots in medium and small cities. Secondly, we should upgrade the research and development of technologies, including establishing special funds for the development of new energy vehicles and brand creation, developing simulation technology platform for battery electric vehicles, setting up battery’s key technology alliance, setting up drive motor and vehicle control systems alliance and developing international technical and industrial cooperation. Thirdly, we should improve the construction of charging facilities, including accelerating the construction of charging infrastructure system, strengthening the supporting grid support capabilities, promoting the standardization of charging and technological innovation. Fourthly, we could fully take advantage of the market force by improving customer satisfaction, encouraging the competition and cooperation between new energy vehicle manufacturing enterprises, breaking local protectionism and improving new energy vehicles access management rules particularly for low-cost battery electric vehicles. Finally, we should improve the support policies for new energy vehicles, including exploring reasonable support model in China, improving market incentives, expanding the scope of application of restrictive policies, building new energy vehicle technology research and development platform and using taxes to enhance new energy vehicles’ competitive advantages.To deal with energy and environmental crisis in the development of automobile industry, China is vigorously promoting the traditional automobiles’ transformation to new energy vehicles and make it a national strategy. In the market cultivation stage, our government provides strong policy support. However, with the technology improves gradually, the purchasing subsidies will exit. To transit from depending on the governmental policies to depending on the mass consumers and to overcome the bottleneck in market development are the only way to ultimately achieve the national strategic goal. The future trend of low-cost battery electric vehicles is found through market diffusion simulation. According to the actual situation, comprehensive consideration and multidimensional new ideas to develop new energy vehicles’ market are offered. The results are expected to make contributions in the breakthrough of the development of new energy vehicles in "new economy" in China.
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