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Pricing Model And Policy Simulation For Natural Gas Terminal Market

Posted on:2017-05-09Degree:DoctorType:Dissertation
Country:ChinaCandidate:C Z GongFull Text:PDF
GTID:1109330491956056Subject:Management Science and Engineering
Abstract/Summary:PDF Full Text Request
Energy is the driving force of economic development and social progress since it is base material of human activities. Under the idea of low carbon economy, natural gas has drawn widely attention throughout the world and becomes one of the fastest growing energy because of its clean, environmental protection and versatile properties. However, China’s rich coal, poor oil, less gas resource endowments and inadequate pricing system have resulted in the natural gas supply and demand increasingly imbalance, and gas shortages are breaking out frequently. To ease the gas shortage and promote the healthy development of the natural gas industry, the National Development and Reform Commission of China is pushing the price reform of natural gas, and ensure that the prices play a fundamental role in resources allocation.Under the background of natural gas price reform, this study is based on the latest theory and developments of System Science and Regulation Economics, and combines the normative analysis with simulation analysis to analysis the gas supply and demand patterns and pricing mechanism, and then proposes the pricing model and pricing policy simulations in gas terminal market, and provide test data and policy reference for natural gas price reform. The main work and innovations are as follows:Firstly, the pricing reform problem for natural gas terminal market has been put forward according to the demand pattern of natural gas supply and the challenge of gas pricing mechanism. To clear the clear the current pattern of natural gas supply and demand, the center of gravity migration path and regional contribution of natural gas production and consumption situation of each area is analyzed. To discover the disadvantages of domestic natural gas pricing mechanism, the foreign natural gas pricing system is used as a comparison analysis. After all this, the time-of-use pricing for industrial users and the increasing block pricing for residential users are proposed.Secondly, combing the estimation methods and pre-existing results of natural gas demand price elasticity, estimating the demand price elasticity of industrial and residential in natural gas terminal market. Starting from the definition of demand price elasticity, this study analyzes the mainstream estimates method of demand price elasticity, and points out that the relationship between the short-term price elasticity and long-term price elasticity. Then, a detailed summary of natural gas demand price elasticity among the world within the scope of the natural gas industrial users and residential users. Based on these existing research results and the characteristics of China’s natural gas terminal market, the demand price elasticity of industrial users and residential users are estimated, which provides data support for time-of-use pricing of industrial users and the increasing block pricing of residential users.Thirdly, analyzing the characteristics of the load of gas pipeline and the demand of industrial users, an optimal time-of-use pricing model for industrial users is established. To simulate the influences of time-of-use pricing, the model is built based on multi-agent modeling and simulation theory, of which could concisely describe the relationship among these stakeholders in the multi-agent system. To obtain the optimal time-of-use price and optimal demand response, the leader-followers evolutionary game model is adopted. In the numerical simulation, two kinds of time-of-use pricing strategies are simutaed, one is peak-valley time-of-use pricing, the other is real-time pricing. All the simulated results indicate that time-of-use pricing schedules have significant potential for peak-shaving and load-shifting for gas pipeline network systems and would thus lower operating costs, which means the time-of-use pricing is good for gas pipeline network and keep the gas load more smoothly. In addition to these effects, the time-of-use pricing schedules colud still promote total social welfare and improve the natural gas end-market efficiency, which is an optimal pricing system for natural gas industrial sector.Fourthly, to assessment the schemes of increasing block pricing in residential sector, an agent-based simulation system is set up. Based on the goals and targets of increasing block pricing, the bottom-up agent-based approach is adopted to reflect the individual characteristics of residential users. By analyzing the residential users’gas demand behavior, the price elastic effect, the herd mentality effect and aggregation effect are used to measure the residential users’ demand response for increasing block pricing. Moreover, to evaluate the influences of increasing block pricing, the consumer surplus, operator utility and social equlity are regareded as evaluation index. In the policy scenarios simulation, the increasing block pricing policy is carried out on with different block schemes. The results indicate that there is an appropriate increasing block gas tariff scheme that has greater ability to improve social equity while still ensuring operator revenue and promoting gas conservation. In order to offset the limitations of the proposed increasing block tariffs, the regulator should adopt some complementary measures, such as applying appropriate policies targeting the intended consumers, and allowing large families to obtain extra allowance of volume.Finally, to give some recommendations for policy regulator, the basic principles, the fundamental directions and implementation paths of natural gas price reform are presented. According to the market trend of international gas development, the pricing mechanism of international gas market and the development situation of natural gas industrial, the price reform of China’s natural gas terminal market should be based on the principles and directions of "frist pilot, stratified implementation, gradual promotion, stable effective", and then adopt the implementation paths of "law construction, market cultivation, price reform, trading center ". Under the general layout of natural gas price reform, it should adopt a "four in one" implementation measures with "the system construction as the foundation, the market cultivation as the premise, the price reform as the core, and the trading center as the key". By all these actions, it will establish a relatively stable of supply and demand, competitive, orderly and vitality gas market in the near future.
Keywords/Search Tags:Natural gas, Time-of-use pricing, Block pricing, Multi-agent system, Policy simulation
PDF Full Text Request
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