| Since the reform and opening up policy, Chinese agriculture has been developing fast along with the deepening of Chinese economic system reform as well as the accelerating industrialization and urbanization process. Agricultural production structure has made great changes accordingly, which transition from farming dominated pattern to four departments’ co-development model with more harmonizing relationship and industrial segmentation. Driven by industrialization and urbanization, transformed consumption structure, diverse demand for agricultural market and competitive pressure abroad become new challenges to agriculture development. With this new circumstance, problems of agricultural structure emerged, such as gradations of agriculture products, supply and demand conflict, duplicate agricultural structure among regions. Consequently, optimize agricultural structure, promote competitiveness and profit of agricultural production will be main task in current and future agriculture. Due to remarkable difference in resource endowment, basic condition, market requirement, technical support and input, the trend, speed and level of agricultural production structure evolution have huge difference and demonstrate different features in different regions and periods. These evolution features are not only remarkable representation of fluctuation in form and function in the gradual progress of agricultural production structure, but also important reflection of evolution rule for agricultural production structure. To this end, the thesis studies the feature of agricultural structure evolution and its formation, which has significant theoretical and practical value.Under the above background, from “industry-region-department†three related dimensions, this thesis aims to analyze the determinants of the formation of the feature, using analysis tools including dynamic analysis, comparable analysis, theoretical model analysis and empirical model analysis, to study the mechanism, summarize these evolution features of agricultural production structure in the past three decades, and explain the causal logic of the formation of these evolution features so as to explore the inherent law of industrial structure change in agriculture with the intention to offer theoretical and practical implications to the optimization and adjustment of agricultural production structure in the future. The science question of this thesis includes: What is the significant feature of agricultural structure evolution, what the determinants of the feature are and how to explain the mechanism.The main content of this thesis includes:(ⅰ) Analysis on the process of Chinese agricultural industry structure evolution in 1978-2013. To investigate and analyze the changing process of Chinese agricultural structure on three levels: national, regional and departmental, to observe the annual variation, the phasic changes, the changes of tendency, the changes of Industry composition, various levels of the agricultural structure in certain period, and to provide basis for the identification and scientific evidence for the agricultural structure evolution.(ⅱ) Identification and determination of agricultural structure evolution. Based on data analysis of thirty-five years of changes and fluctuations in Chinese agricultural structure evolution history, this research makes a summary for agricultural structure features from three levels: overall, regional and departmental. Through the evolution index of building agricultural industrial structure, the research studies the degree of variation of agricultural industrial structure and other indicators to measure the trend characteristics, speed characteristics, features and sustainable characteristics and the overall characteristics in agricultural industrial structure evolution; Through the similarity coefficient of agricultural industrial structure, the author applies the Spatial Gini Coefficient, Moran’s I index and other indicators to measure the similar feature, discriminative features, focus features and correlative character and other provincial characteristics of agricultural industrial structure evolution; Through the rate of change of industrial number, the author uses industry association index and other indexes to measure the constitutive characteristics, tendency characteristics, associated characteristics, level feature, characteristics of sustainability and other departmental characteristics in agricultural sector.(ⅲ) Analysis on the formation of the overall characteristics of the agricultural industrial structural evolution. From aspects of the market demand changes, technological progress, basic conditions, policy and system and other factors, the research analyzes the formation of evolving characteristics, level feature, speed characteristics and sustainability characteristics of agricultural industrial structure evolution, and carries on empirical test of Econometrics model on the formation of the overall characteristics of agricultural industrial structure evolution.(ⅳ) Analysis on the formation of regional characteristics of agricultural industrial structure evolution. From the aspect of initial state of the agricultural industrial structure, market demand, system and policy, this research analyzes the formation of common regional characteristic of agricultural industrial structure. From the aspect of resource endowment, basic conditions and technical level, it analyzes the formation of different regional characteristics of agricultural industrial structure evolution. From the aspect of regional comparativeness, technological progress, industrial policy and other factors, it analyzes the regional aggregating characteristics of agricultural industrial structure evolution. From the aspect of market condition, economic spillover effect and traffic conditions and other factors, it analyzes the formation of the regional related characteristics of agricultural industrial structure evolution, and carries on empirical test of Econometrics on the formation of the provincial characteristics of agricultural industrial structure evolution.(ⅴ) Analysis on the formation of the departmental structure of agricultural industry structure evolution. From the aspect of market demand, cost benefit and other factors, the research analyzes the food features of plant industry structure evolution, and the non-pig tendency characteristics of animal husbandry structure evolution. From the aspect of market demand, factors allocation and other factors, it analyzes the formation of convergent characteristics and factor substitutive characteristic of planting and breeding industry in agricultural industrial structure evolution, and the establishment of econometric models on the evolution of industrial structure of agriculture sector features formed to carry out an empirical test, and carries on empirical test of Econometrics on the formation of sector characteristics of agricultural industrial structure evolution.The main conclusion of this thesis includes:(ⅰ) From 1978 to 2013, the skewness of agricultural production structure was obviously changed and its evolution tended to be optimized and stable gradually. In the meantime, although planting industry, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery had great development, the leading position of planting industry had been changed remarkably. The ratio of output value in planting industry declined from 80% to 53%, decreasing by 27 percents. The condition of animal husbandry taking up a relatively small ratio had been changed remarkably as well. The ratio of output value in animal husbandry rose from 15% to 29%, increasing by 14 percents. The condition of fishery taking up an excessively small ratio had been radically changed. The ratio of output value in fishery rose from 2% to 10%, increasing by 9 percents. And the condition of forestry taking up a small ratio had been improved certainly. The ratio of output value in forestry rose from 3% to 4%, increasing by 1 percent. All these were reflected on the level of aggregation. Agricultural industrial structure evolution index(ASI) declined from 0.815 to 0.616, indicating that the structure condition of a single industry playing the leading role had been changed and synergetic development of many industries was gradually taking shape. Measurement of land output and labor productivity indicated that the gradation and level of the evolution of agricultural industrial structure were gradually improving while the measurement of environmental index, population bearing index of cultivated land and economic index indicated that zoology, resource and economy in the gradual progress of agricultural industrial structure were declining. Measurement of Moore structural changes indicated that the evolution speed of agricultural industrial structure presented obvious time-phased feature and volatility. Volatility started to decrease and speed slowed down in 2003 and even further receded after 2006, which indicated that the evolution of agricultural production structure tended to be stable and this feature got effective support from ASI value. ASI had slight fluctuations between 0.61 and 0.62 in the following ten years after 2003. Empirical analysis indicated that macro economy, market requirement, factor supply, policy orientation, production and management were key factors influencing the formation of features in the gradual progress of agricultural production structure and it was exactly these features that promoted the formation of evolution features.(ⅱ) From 1978 to 2013, the similarity of regional agricultural industrial structure evolution receded to some extent and diversity enhanced on the contrary. Aggregating and correlative features became prominent gradually. Measurement of similarity factor and diversity factor indicated that the similarity of agricultural industrial structure evolution in east, middle and west regions was very high but diversity quite low from 1978 to 1985 while the similarity of agricultural industrial structure evolution in middle and west regions was quite high but the diversity between east region and other two regions became to stand out gradually, manifesting that although the evolution in east, middle and west regions had been differentiated, diversity development was not sufficient at all and diversity in location, resource, economical development level, technical progress, and market requirement had not fully played the role in the evolution of agricultural production structure. The similarity factor of agricultural production structure evolution of various provinces in three major regions declined gradually(except Tibet) but still lied at a high level, indicating that respective advantages of various provinces in three major regions had not been fully utilized and specialty industry was not so outstanding to make it become the leading factor of regional agriculture. Measurement of Gini coefficient indicated that clustering feature of rice declined but that of wheat enhanced. Clustering feature in corn area was stable and that in live pig area had not big changes while agglomeration degree in the production areas of beef and mutton enhanced obviously. Test of ASI index and Moran’s I index indicated that the correlation of agricultural production structure evolution in different provinces in the east region was very strong(correlation index was 0.78 to 0.99), the correlation index in different provinces in the middle region took the second place(correlation index was 0.71 to 0.9) while the correlation index of agricultural production structure evolution in different provinces in the west region was relatively low, manifesting that the pattern of coordination and distribution of responsibilities and correlation dependence in the evolution of agricultural production structure in various provinces in the east and middle regions was taking shape; however, such pattern for west region had not yet been formed. Model and empirical study indicated that the formation of evolution features of regional agricultural production structure could be affected by many factors such as resource endowment, basic condition, input level, technical progress and original state of evolution, and these factors determined the difference in evolution features and their formation in regional structure while similar original state, same system and policy made evolution features and their formation in regional structure have certain similarity.(ⅲ) From 1978 to 2013, the tendency from grain and pig in the interior structure of agricultural sector became prominent, element replacement was active, and evolution gradation and level were improved. In the meantime, grain acreage and output value ratio in planting industry both declined. However, cultivated area and output value ratio of industrial crops such as vegetables and fruits both rose. Measurement of deviation index of industrial structural feature indicated that the feature of departure from grain in the evolution of the structure of planting industry was obvious. Product ratio and output value ratio of pig breeding industry in animal husbandry both declined while these of breeding industry of beef, mutton, poultry and dairy cow both rose. Measurement of deviation index of industrial structural feature indicated that the tendency from pig in the evolution of the structure of animal husbandry was obvious. In the gradual progress of the structure of agricultural sector, technology substituted natural resources, facilities and equipments substituted labor, new-type means of production substituted traditional means of production and this substituted action was completely active. Substitution saved a lot of scarce resources and productivity of key elements and labor were greatly improved. Evolution gradation and level of agricultural production structure were promoted as well. Model and empirical study indicated that changes in market requirement for agricultural products, agricultural resource endowment, production condition, progress of industrial technology, and income disparities of different industries were important factors influencing the evolution of the interior structure of agricultural sector. Moreover, evolution process and appearance of sector features was promoted by combined action of these factors.(ⅳ) In the middle and later periods of last century, output value ratio of planting industry and animal husbandry tended to be stable and the amplitude of variation be narrowed but the evolution of interior structure was active. From 1997 to 2013, the ratio of output value of planting industry in total value of agricultural output declined from 58.23% to 53.09% while the ratio of output value of animal husbandry rose from 28.73% to 29.32%. The ratio of output value of planting industry was gradually decreasing and interannual amplitude of variation was relatively small while the ratio of output value of animal husbandry was gradually increasing and interannual amplitude of variation was relatively small. The ratio of output value of these two major sectors in agriculture in total value of agricultural output declined from 86.96% to 82.41%, decreasing amplitude and interannual amplitude of variation being very small. This tendency has been in a stable state since 2006, indicating obvious constriction feature. It shows that products production and requirement of planting industry and animal husbandry has achieved a balance basically, planting industry taking up X ahigher ratio(over 50%) and animal husbandry taking up a lower ratio(about 30%), which is decided by the consumption custom that residents in China give priority to plant-derived food and animal-derived food is subsidiary. Thus, it could be deduced that the evolution of Chinese agricultural production structure won’t step into the evolution route of western developed countries that animal husbandry takes the leading role in a long period. In the meantime, interior structures of planting industry and animal husbandry are very active. Seeded area of grain crops in planting industry is reduced to 0.9565 million hectares while cultivated areas of industrial crops, fruits and vegetables are respectively increased by 11.4696 million hectares, 3.723 million hectares and 9.1613 million hectares. Outputs of pig, beef and mutton in animal husbandry are increased from 35.9625 million tons, 4.4087 million tons and 2.1282 million tons to 54.9303 million tons, 6.7321 million tons and 4.0814 million tons. The ratio of pig is reduced from 68.26% to 64.36%, the ratio of beef is reduced from 8.37% to 7.89%, the ratio of mutton is raised from 4.04% to 4.79% and the ratio of poultry is raised from 19.33% to 22.96%.(ⅴ) Gross power of agricultural machinery, financial support in agriculture and economic development level have enormous promoting effect on the formation of evolution features of agricultural production structure. However, the promoting effect of market requirement, technological innovation and urbanization are relatively small. The improvement of the level of agricultural machinery equipment is to the benefit of increasing productivity and output capacity of key elements, improving operation level, increasing output and saving costs. In addition, it has direct effect on the composition of industry, ratio of industry, gradation and level of development in the evolution of agricultural production structure. Financial support in agriculture and economic development level determine the amount of agricultural input which not only decides the transformation of traditional industries but also the formation and development of emerging industries. Direct effect was taken in the transformation of traditional industries, industry selection, scale decision and adoption of technique and production mode in the evolution of agricultural production structure. Theoretically, market requirement, technological innovation and urbanization should be the importance force for promoting the evolution and feature formation of agricultural production structure. However, Model and empirical study indicates that although these factors are exerting promoting effect, the effect is not prominent. On one hand, it shows that resident income is not equal to economic development and overall level is not high. Living standard is improved slowly after solving the problem of food and clothing and resident income fails to exert the promoting function in the evolution of agricultural production structure. On the other hand, it shows that China’s technological achievements have not been fully applied in agricultural production and the supporting role in the in the evolution of agricultural production structure has not been fully played. Besides, it shows that synergistic and promoting functions of urbanization in the evolution of agricultural production structure are insufficient, playing a limited role in the formation of evolution features of agricultural production structure.The possible innovation of this thesis includes:This thesis centers around the agricultural industrial structure evolution in 1978-2013, deeply analyzed the process and the factors affecting the agricultural industry structure evolution. Through the analysis of the factors affecting the agricultural industrial structure evolution and its mechanism, the author obtained some valuable results, and the innovative aspects of this dissertation are mainly as follows:(ⅰ) From the overall-region-department correlated dimension, this dissertation makes comprehensive judgment and summary for Chinese agriculture industrial structure evolution since the reform and opening up policy, and carries on in-depth analytic demonstration for the formation mechanism of these features. Taking the evolution characteristics as the breakthrough point to observe and understand the agricultural industrial structure evolution is a relatively new perspective.(ⅱ) The study found that the occupancy rates of planting and animal husbandry sectors in the general output of agriculture have been stable since the middle of the last century, the changing ranges of the occupancy rates has been narrowed down, and the convergence of the change is obvious. This may show that since the consumption habits of Chinese residents is to eat planting food, planting industry sector would keep a consistently dominant position, while the proportion of the animal husbandry would not be going up too high. It can be concluded that Chinese agricultural industrial structure will not follow the path of western developed countries, where animal husbandry is the dominant sector in agriculture, in a long period.(ⅲ) The dissertation attempts to construct the agricultural structure index(ASI), which can reflect the changes of industrial structure, industrial associations and levels in the agricultural industrial structure evolution. The index can be used to determine the transformation characteristics of agricultural structure evolution. The construction of such index would contribute significantly as an innovative tool to measure the structure of agricultural industry.
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