Xinjiang Cotton Price Volatility And Its Transfer Effect

Cotton price volatility refers to the absolute price or relative price of cotton in constant motion in the performance of forms generate work together with other price this form through certain channels or pathways, causing changes in the overall price level, and called cotton prices fluctuations effect the transfer.Xinjiang cotton with cotton circulation system reform in China in 1999,in 2001 China’s accession to the WTO, China’s cotton futures market set up in June 2004, and entered into a period of rapid development,But in the past few years, the cotton market fluctuations in abnormal fluctuations in cotton prices, so that the Xinjiang cotton has not achieved long-term resource advantages into economic advantages, this has brought a heavy blow to the cotton and cotton farmers in Xinjiang. Due to the special geographical position and natural environment in Xinjiang, the cotton price stability of Xinjiang agricultural structure adjustment and increasing farmers’ income has the important influence, in Xinjiang cotton market system is of great significance for the development and perfection.This paper uses theory and research methods of agricultural economics, industrial economics, regional economics and other disciplines, combined with severe Xinjiang cotton price fluctuations special regional situation, the cotton price volatility factors and analyze how stable transfer effect from cotton prices the following chapters discuss in detail started: first chapter is introduction.Firstly, the importance of the research background, research questions are discussed, through the study of existing literature and summarizes the existing literature on the carding issues related research methods, conclusions, find their own research methods and perspective on this basis, arrange the logical structure of the article, the wording ideas, research content and, finally, the contribution of articles on related issues.The second chapter. Firstly,the definition of the concept of economic fluctuation, economic cycle, price fluctuation, cotton price, price transmission and price elasticity is defined. Then, the theoretical basis of this study, price theory,equilibrium price theory, demand theory, price theory, etc.The third chapter: Analysis on the situation of cotton production and purchase and sale in Xinjiang.In this chapter, cotton production status, purchase and sale, production and sales of cotton in Xinjiang province were analyzed, and the cotton planting, cost,purchase and sale status, distribution system and so on, which make clear the relationship between the cotton industry chain and price fluctuation.The third chapter: Characteristic analysis of cotton price fluctuation in Xinjiang. Xinjiang and other domestic cotton price fluctuations in the overall trend, the cotton price fluctuations of Xinjiang, the reasons were analyzed using ARCH class models Xinjiang cotton price volatility characteristics of the empirical analysis, which pointed out that cotton price volatility characteristics. Chapter cotton price fluctuations influencing factors. The fifth chapter:Xinjiang cotton price fluctuations influencing factors. Using questionnaire collected data, the influence factors of evaluation conclusion Xinjiang cotton price fluctuation influence factors, through theoretical analysis, and on this basis, using Granger Causality test, Granger Causality Tests) can help us to analysis the cotton price and the causal relationship between influencing factors, as the basis of further analysis.The sixth chapter:Xinjiang cotton price volatility transmission effect analysis. The vertical price fluctuation between the international and domestic-Xinjiang cotton, cotton producers- processing enterprises-Purchasing and selling enterprises is transferred in order to make clear the correlation and fluctuation effect of the fluctuation of cotton price in Xinjiang. The seventh chapter: from the macro and micro two aspects, the current cotton policy effect and mechanism of Xinjiang. On the basis of the above, it puts forward the regulation policy of stabilizing the price fluctuation of cotton in Xinjiang, and provides the policy basis for the stable development of cotton industry in Xinjiang.Through a comprehensive theoretical and empirical analysis, this paper get the following main conclusions:First, in Xinjiang cotton production process,since the founding of the Xinjiang cotton production areas in China, has experienced from scratch, from small scale planting to large-scale cultivation stage.Reviewing 60 years history of cotton in Xinjiang and the development of cotton industry, we can be roughly divided into four historical stages: the first stage:1954-1980, is a small amount of Xinjiang cotton production phase.The second stage:1981-1990, Xinjiang’s cotton industry is a preliminary stage of development.The third stage:1991-2000, Xinjiang’s cotton industry is comprehensive and rapid development stage.The fourth stage: since 2001, Xinjiang’s cotton industry is entering a new stage of development of market competition.After entering the new century, with the national industrial layout adjustment and the needs of the industrial structure adjustment in Xinjiang, the Xinjiang cotton planting scale and level of rising at the same time, the development of textile industry began with its people’s attention, and put forward the "east ingot westering" textile industry development.Xinjiang cotton output in2014 more than 50% of domestic cotton output, 15% of the world’s cotton production. This rapid development also determines a significant role in the Xinjiang cotton industry in our country, as China’s largest production base of commodity cotton in Xinjiang, it is also one of a cotton-producing area in the world’s largest.The government’s policy of Xinjiang cotton industry happened many times in the history of change. The government’s policy of cotton implement by program management, to gradually set up under the national macro-control, rely mainly on market mechanism to realize the cotton resources rational allocation of the new system.The corresponding government management of cotton market from the planned intervention to the policy adjustment, the market has basically realized the market. Such a policy change decided to Xinjiang cotton purchase price, sales price formed mainly by the market, government no longer made the unification stipulation, the acquisition price by corporate takeovers in consultation with farmers identified,in order to stabilize cotton market and the price to take the State purchasing and storage plan in 2010. In the face of such a change in the cotton industry in Xinjiang to have their own ready to respond to changes in the market.Second, since the reform and opening up,Xinjiang cotton price fluctuations show their own characteristics. Recent cotton prices present a huge volatility in Xinjiang, "difficult to sell cotton" and "difficult to buy cotton" phenomenon occur alternately, cotton production in Xinjiang into a "shortage" and "surplus" drastic change the cycle of volatile, compared with other crops, such as food, the fluctuation of the price of cotton has become the main characteristic of Xinjiang cotton, also affected the income of farmers, more to Xinjiang economic development has played a certain influence. Xinjiang cotton price fluctuations, the performance of the following characteristics: Cotton prices rose overall volatility,fluctuations increase, and there is a tendency to aggravate; cotton price has obvious length fluctuation cycle, long cycle peak volatility; with the policy changes, cotton price fluctuations appear peaks and troughs.Study period of cotton prices fell roughly attributed as follows: the relevant policy change, is the cause of the cotton price volatility; Production costs continue to rise is the cause of the fluctuation of cotton prices; Production is performed web features of the main causes of the cotton price fluctuations; The weather conditions make the cotton price volatility; Cotton futures trading is not perfect, speculative motive increases the fluctuations of cotton prices.Third, price is a series of natural and social activities of cotton production, circulation, processing and so on.The formation and fluctuation of cotton price in Xinjiang is influenced by both domestic and international market factors, and it is also influenced by the factors of Xinjiang.The fluctuation of the price of cotton is cotton in our country under the background of formation of the circulation system. Accordingto the situation of cotton fluctuations and government involvement in cotton prices form of intervention,the Xinjiang cotton price fluctuations to be about equal to the cotton price fluctuation trend in China, as the cotton circulation system reform and the development of international trade, the status of Xinjiang cotton cotton industry in the world more and more important.Xinjiang cotton prices by policy, the production,consumption, exports, alternatives, such as the international market, the influence of the empirical analysis of the international cotton prices, production cost, output, inventories, imports of Xinjiang cotton prices that when other factors remain unchanged, the influence of the above 1%, one factor changes, the Xinjiang cotton prices, in turn, change 0.53%, 0.1558%,-0.094%,- 2.92%,-0.0323%.Fourth, the price fluctuation is first spread along the path of the international market and the domestic market,after entering the domestic market mainly in accordance with the production of raw material prices or import price-wholesale price-the price of the retail price of the industry chain conduction, after China’s accession to the WTO, international trade cotton increased rapidly, the Xinjiang cotton prices and domestic and international cotton prices influence each other more and more big.And the impact is based on the price difference, the difference between the cotton and domestic and international cotton price difference,not only shows that the difference of the degree of development of different cotton market, the impact of the level of economic development in Xinjiang Province, but also affect the long-term development of the cotton industry.A higher percentage of cotton import trade, openness is higher, so the price is influenced by international prices in Xinjiang. International prices for growing contribution of changes in prices of cotton in Xinjiang, but still in a lower level. Xinjiang cotton producer price index fluctuation to the conduction of retail price index is lag, and there is a certain resistance, smooth conduction degree is not high.