Research On The Early Warning Management Sysytem Of Urban Agglomeration Economic Bubble

With further development of world economy, urban agglomeration(UA) has gradually become bright spot in the region, and some of UA even have become economic engine of regional. Under increasing influence power of UA, healthy and steady development of UA has become the most important issue for promoting economy level of countries and world. Urban agglomeration economic bubble(UAEB) more liked a ghost which always played an invisible constraints on economies, and became a hazard issue to hinder the healthy development of the world economy. This problem could not be ignored, and the out-of-control crisis would bring fearsome affection to UA economy. In order to deal with this threat and to play a role before the Economic bubble(EB) bursting, an early warning and management system(EWMS) should be established, which would have not only waring function but also management capability..After analysising the five paris basic concepts of urban agglomeration economy bubble(UAEB) and three group of theory system(sustainable development theory, bubble theory, early waring theory), some inside relationship were known such as feasibility, necessity and effectiveness of EWMS-UAEB. Based these work, a EWMS-UAEB was built and verified. The research was made of four parts:First of all, the formation mechannism of UAEB was analyzed. Five group concepts were analysised. From views of physics, economic, management, the evolution of EB was analysised. After the principle role research, the structure of UAEB, the growth cycle of UAEB, the evolutionary mechanisms of UAEB were acquainted which were absolutely necessary and important. And based on connotation, the principle of establishment, the epitaxial characteristics, some early warning methods were choose, such as early warning index, models for early warning, and so on. Some theoretical system were identified which were made of 2 categories warning resources, 3 warning situations, four mode of waring degree, five-pronged and 14 indicators of warning signal, which helped theoretical support.Second, structure and flow seting, model technology selection, some of core warning concepts were defined. Based on the essential connotation, the extension, the establishment principles, analysised setting elements, the system structure, system process, which guided selection of model technologies. According to the characteristics of EWMS, structure and flow setting guided technology models selection for EWMS. According to the characteristics of EWMS, the regulatory domain, influencing factors, critical value set were analysised. These analysis made some necessary groundwork for model technology building of EWMS-UAEB.Third, in order to obtain the optimized combination of variety early warning methods, the index system and modeling techniques were tested meticulously. The indicators system for EWS included 9 leading indicators, 9 coincident indicators, 9 lagging indicators.Vector auto regressive model(VAR) was used as the basic EWS model of UAEB for caculating bubble degree(BD), which was constructed on the theory of input-output principle. In order to improve the stability and accuracy of the model, some test verification measures were used which were ordinary least square(OLS), F test, t test, and so on. System dynamics model(SD) was chosen as the basic management model of UAEB, and found that subsystems of SD should be simple and pay more attention to factors of population and GDP.Fouth, Simulated the policy on the regulation of foam under strong and soft bubble pressure. The policy was classified for responsing to UAEB(response Policy had three categories: alert type, adjustable and repression type), and the main factors were extract according policy implications. Using the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration(YRDU) as the authentication of EWMS-UAEB instance, SD model was used to analyze two situation under strong and soft bubble pressure, the policy adjustment simulation was run, and verified that the EWMS-UAEB had some positive and beneficial performance for the preventing and managing the UAEB.In perspectives, evolution and methods, new angles, fresh evolution and new methods were proposed to deal with the EB. On the perspective, most of previous studies lack of UA economic position, which made bubble researches focused on the industry, regional, foam and other countries, ignoring UAEB. Analyzing fresh evolution, this system avoided to be mislead by formation process and could be built on the evolution mechanism. For method using, most of studies used a single method, and a variety of combination methods could not be used effectively. The first actions limited by the selected method; latter study was misguid for lack knowledge of EWMS mechanism.For the theoretical value, the level of EWMS was conducive to be enhanced. In terms of EB research, the new research areas was expanded, EB could be understood in-depth level. In the EWMS research, the status would be changed that early warning and management could be combinated tightly and closely. This research would be a beneficial exploration for protecting continuable and healthy development of UA economic.