Research On Key Technologies And Their Application In Airspace Classifcation

The so-called key technologies of airspace classification are the mathematic analysis models which solve related important problems and difficult problems by qualitative and quantitative methods. These are the key technologies of airspace classification reform; more importantly, they are the theme of the paper. Taking the theme as the core, the research categories of the paper can be classified into five parts: airspace classification projects and analysis of key technologies, the long-term forecast of air traffic flow, the comprehensive evaluation of air traffic support system, the security analysis of airspace classification and the key technologies of air space classification. The first part is foundation, the later three parts are the core and the last part is the application of the later three parts. The above five parts consists a mutually related and integrated research frame. What is the comprehension of airspace, airspace classification and relation concepts? What arethe standards of ICAO airspace classification and the airspace classification projects of developed-aviation countries? What are the key factors in the consideration of airspace classification and the involved key technologies? The first part answers these questions, and then research focuses are specified, followed by the illustration of three key technologies: the long-term forecast of air traffic flow, the comprehensive evaluation of air traffic support system, the security analysis of airspace classification which will be confronted in the reform of the air space classification project.In view of the shortcomings in the present research on the long-term forecast of air traffic flow home and abroad, the second part of the paper takes the 1985-2008 data of national-wide airplane sortie as the example and makes an adaptable contrastive analysis on the Chinese air traffic flow by means of three frequently used forecast methods: time series forecast, regression forecast and neural-network forecast. According to the characteristics of our civil aviation which is lack of air traffic flow data and in rapid and uneven increase, the paper first puts forward the a gray combination forecast model for the national-wide air traffic flow on the base of the GM (1,1) model and the least squares principle. Meanwhile, by contrastive analysis, the result of forecast shows that the gray combination forecast model is of the highest forecast precision and of the best effect, which should be the first choice in our country's long-term forecast models of air traffic flow at present.By the analysis of the basic characteristics of air space support system such as communication, navigation and surveillance, based ICAO related standards and equipment technology requirement of Chinese civil aviation bureau, the third part sets up the capability evaluation index system of various air space support systems, puts forward the vague comprehensive evaluation method of airspace support system capability, verifies the feasibility of the method by the case of the comprehensive evaluation of radar surveillance system and presents the comprehensive evaluation flow of air space support system.The security researches of airspace classification focus on safety problem which will be faced in the process of airspace classification reform:â‘ security analysis of airspace classification reform;â‘¡flight security analysis in lower airspace;â‘¢flight security analysis on airport airspace;â‘£human factor safety analysis of airspace classification, and all of which buildup the forth part of paper.Airspace classification project is the precondition of air space classification reform. The paper adopts the"5M"model of systems engineering, sets the security of air space classification project as the mission, refines four aspects of the air space classification factors which are man, machine, media and management into 16 security factors and sets up the security evaluation index system of air space classification project. Based on D-S proof theory, the paper also sets up the security evaluation model of air space classification project and deals with the data achieved by the method of Delfa expert investigation. The case analysis denotes both the evaluation index system and the evaluation model are practical and feasible.In order to determine the aircraft flight safety after the opening of low altitude airspace, based on the ICAO standards, CAAC regulations, and aerodynamic principles, following See and Avoid principle, under the binding conditions of flight rules, visibility requirements, responding time, the speed of aircraft, banking angle of circling and climbing angle, a mathematic collision avoidance model of converging traffic and intersecting traffic at the same level was established. The data analyses illustrate that there need be meet certain flight condition to avoid safely between the two head-to-head converging aircraft at the same level, while cross-converging aircraft at the same level can safely avoid the collisions.The security analysis of airport airspace is blank in nowadays'research home and abroad. Since aircraft flow obeys the Poisson distribution, time-distance between aircraft heads obeys the shifted negative exponential distribution according to the requirement of the minimum safety distance between aircrafts, the paper builds the portrait aviation conflict risk model of airport air space aircrafts by the adoption of case model which presents the quantitative analysis method of airport air space portrait aviation conflict risk.Air traffic controller and pilot reliabilities are researched in the part of human factors safety analysis of airspace classification. The security of airspace aviation lies mainly in the reliability of air traffic controller. According to the security evaluation issue of air traffic controller, the CREAM method is first applied to quantificationally analyze air traffic controller in this paper. Improved triangle whitenization weight function based on grey system theory is adopted to confirm level grade of each CPC gene and thus the subjective effect is reduced. Pilot is the main body of airspace safety in uncontrolled low airspace. Based on the human cognitive reliability (HCR) theory, the responding failure probability model of pilots was also established, and pilot's responding failure probability is arrived after data analysis.The application of airspace classification key technologies is researched in fifth part. Through the analysis on the weakness of Chinese present airspace classification project, according to Chinese situation and successful experience of developed-aviation countries'airspace classification, the primary project frame of our nation's airspace classification is present and division standards of various airspaces is clarified. On the basis of the division flow of airspace classification project, the key airspace classification technologies which are the long-term forecast of air traffic flow, the comprehensive evaluation of air support system, the security analysis of airspace classification, are applied respectively to the airspace division process, along with the solution of the specific problems in the airspace division such as the clarify of airspace structure involved in the process.