Key Technology Research And System Development Of Dam Safety Risk Management

There are about 86000 dams in China,40% of which are sick and dangerous.The average leak rate is 2.784×10-4 from 1982 to 2000 in China,which is higher than the world average level (1.92×10-4),So the traditional management mode has much time to improve;Along with the more people and the rapid developments downstream,what we need to care is not just the engineering safety,but also the public safety,so the risk management mode is necessary to China.The paper researched the idea,the main techniques and the system of dam safety risk management which has great theory value and practical significance.The paper researched the system info of dam safety risk management,which contains the objects,the frame and the process,the methods and the model of life cycle risk management.The article also desked study the mode of dam safety risk management in China,and came up with the total strategy and six suggestments to realize the mode.Based on the modern mode, the paper paid close attention to the processes of public safety downsteam which includes the dambreak flood analysis,the risk evaluation and the emergency evacuation.Considering the reservoir regulation function, erosion model was established to simulate the burst development process. Based on double scanning coupling method , a one-dimensional and two-dimensional coupling mathematics model was established to simulate the flood evolution process. At the last, own system and particle technique are used to display the burst development process visually,and GIS is used to display the floods evolution process visually.Based on support vector machine (SVM) theory, considering 13 factors which affect loss of life, the improvement SVM model was established which was superior to the SVM model considering five factors and improved method of Graham; The dam risk standard, probability analysis, calculation of economic loss and social environment evaluation method were summarized;At the last, second development technology was used to achieve the whole process of loss estimation in GIS system.Considering mountain flood characteristics, the method for selecting mountain flood shelter was put forward; Based on risk concept, residents evacuated sequence were evaluated; Considering whether directly connected with the point of origin,the route weight calculation method were proposed , and a mountainous area flood evacuation speed model was established; Considering residents evacuated sequence and shelter capacity,Dijkstra algorithm was improved, and the mountain flood emergency evacuation process was implemented and visualized based on GIS. the article analysed ,evaluated and treated the risk of LiangHeKou soil core wall rockfill dam in quarter gradually collapse situation of the largest possible flooding.The loss of life can tolerate, economic loss is intolerable, social and environmental impacts can tolerate. It is need 1.14 hours for residents in HeKouZhen to evacuate to shelters.With a high-level programming language Delphi as a development tool, combining database management, geography information system, image processing, virtual reality, expert system and second development techniques, with introduction of advanced algorithms, the article realized the whole dam safety risk management visually systemically and digitally,which can provide a convenient, quick and efficient work and information exchange platform for related personnel,and suggest a new management mode for future.