Study On Water Transport Safety Control And Emergency Management For Three Gorges Reservoir Of Yangtze River

After the high-water impoundment of Three Gorges reservoir since June 2003, the navigation environment has improved significantly, water transportation volume has being growing rapidly. At the same time, the navigation environment has undergone major changes and become more and more complex, new security risks of water transportation increase unceasingly. Three Gorges reservoir of Yangtze River is a high-risk area of water transportation, the extraordinarily serious safety accidents and pollution incidents will cause damage to the reservoir area and the whole along the Yangtze River. How to improve reservoir water safety management to ensure water traffic safety become problems to be solved urgently.This dissertation used principles and methods of modern control theory modern control theory to analyze the water transport safety control mechanisms and management elements, as for the idea to the thesis researches. It analyzed water traffic accidents characteristics and risk factors for hazard identification in three Gorges reservoir; used appropriate methods to estimate the state equation of water transport safety and construct the security goal control model of optimal strategy; studied safety emergency management system and performance evaluation methods; put forward early warning mechanism for navigation safety in fog. The content and results of the dissertation are as follows:1) It applied modern control theory to design water traffic safety management system control mechanism to be the negative feedback loop control, in addition, the key management elements are the water transportation safety system monitoring, system analysis, identifying security objectives, decision-making and implementation of safety control strategy.2) It analyzed the characteristics of water traffic accidents in Three Gorges reservoir, used grey model, ARIMA model and Elman artificial neural network model to predict traffic accidents; analyzed the characteristic changes of water transport risks, used pre-hazard-analysis (PHA) and likelihood-exposure-consequence-degree (LECD) assessment to identify the navigation environment hazard.3) It researched the safety state equations for Three Gorges reservoir, applied small sample parameter estimation method of the Least square method-Kalman filtering algorithm-Least square (LKL) method to estimate water traffic safety state equation to measure the degree of system risk and the value of safety efforts to control; applied discrete dynamic system optimal control theory to study water traffic safety optimal control, built a safety goal control model based on the optimal resource investment strategy.4) It designed the security emergency management system of the water traffic safety, including organization system, management process and information system; construct a water traffic safety emergency management performance comprehensive evaluation index system consisting of 4 level indicators and 15 secondary indicators, used analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation (FCE) methods to evaluate water traffic safety emergency management performance.5) It analyzed the characteristics of fog in Three Gorges reservoir, the influence and problems to navigation safety management; researched early warning mechanism of navigation safety in fog, including warning levels and criteria, organization operation mode, pre-control measures library, put forward the corresponding management countermeasures and suggestions.The innovative works in this dissertation are as follows:it apply small sample parameter estimation method of LKL method to estimate water traffic safety state equation of Three Gorges reservoir; build a safety goal control model based on the optimal resource investment strategy; construct water traffic safety emergency management performance comprehensive evaluation index system, and put forward the early warning mechanism of navigation safety in fog.