Study On Water Transport Safety Evaluation Of The Yangtze River Based On The State Equation

As the largest inland river in china, Yangtze River played an enormous role in water transportation. In face of the new situation and new requirement, the study to research the regularity of the Yangtze River water transportation accident and evaluation to the system of water transportation safety will contribute to improve water traffic safety management level, and then to reduce casualties and economic losses. The ultimate goal of all study is to provide security for the rapid development of the Yangtze River Shipping efficient and smooth transportation facilities support.According to the system control theory, the paper analyzed the changed characteristics of Yangtze River water traffic accidents based on statistic, then find out the main risk factors. Through analyzing the existing water safety evaluation index, in view of the accident evolution characteristics, selecting comprehensive accident rate and comprehensive mortality as the target variables of the system safety state equation model. Then establishes the water traffic safety state equation model for the Yangtze River main water traffic safety and provides the basis for the quantitative evaluation.with three sections of Yangtze River respectively as the research object, according to the results of the equation of state measure risk value and control degree value to discriminate that the system meats the specified safety target or fits the safety requirements or not, and gives the safety management measures. The purpose of this study is to help adjust the Yangtze River water transportation and control management system with taking some measures to perfect and strengthen.This paper mainly consists of six parts. The first part introduces the research background and significance, and the current research state of domestic and abroad. The second part analyses the situation and characteristics of Yangtze River water traffic safety, specially analyzing the risk factors and their relationship, and use the Grey and Markov Model for the accident prediction. In the third part, based on the dynamic system control theory, it select the integrated accident rate and mortality for safety state variables, the degree of risk and control for parameters. Ultimately, a safety-state-equation model of water transportation system is constructed. The fourth part, because water transport safety accidents were random and less statistics, it used small sample parameter estimation method of the Least square method-Kalman filtering algorithm-Least square method (LKL) to measure the safety state equation of water transport for the different sections of the Yangtze River. The fifth part, basing on the safety state equation, it evaluated the degree of system risk and safety efforts to control for the different sections of the Yangtze River. According to the above analysis, it puts forward some suggestions and countermeasures to strengthen the safety management level. At last, this paper is summarized, and the future study direction is discussed.