Evaluation Of Navigation Safety In The Port Water Area Based On SEM

Port water areas become busier and port channel more crowed as the trends of upsizing, high speed and specialization of ships. Worsen port water area environment often leads port traffic accidents which not only bring heavy losses of lives and property, but also affect ocean environment of port water areas, it goes against sustainable development of the economy. Navigation safety evaluation of port water areas mainly study about the influence degree of the navigation safety of port water areas and that whether port water areas is safe, the evaluation result and the causal relationships of the influence factors help to improve the navigation safety level, reduce the port waters navigation safety accidents.It’s not easy for quantitative measure as many navigation safety influencing factors are subject and complex. Incidence of coastal water areas is available when Fuzzy Evaluation method and Grey Clustering analysis are used to evaluate navigation safety of port water areas, but not correlations of influencing factors which affects decider’s awareness when omitted. It finally does harm to navigation safety. Structural equation modeling (SEM), integrated by route analysis, factor analysis and ordinary statistical test methods, can overcome the complexity of variables and analyze causal relationships of variables. It has the advantages of factor analysis and route analysis and makes up the disadvantages of factor analysis. Therefore, SEM can be used to evaluate navigation safety of port water areas and find out proper measures counter to specific factor to avoid safety accidences.This paper has not only analyzed the reasons of navigation safety accidences and implicit factors of insecurity of port water areas, but also discussed the effects of environment, management, person and ship to navigation safety of a coastal port (hereinafter referred to as A port) water areas in detail. After distinguishing navigation safety influencing factors of A port water areas, establish evaluation index system of navigation safety, introduce SEM and set up path diagram of influencing factors and structural equation modeling, then solve the model. At last, come up with advice to improve the level of navigation safety for administrative staff of A port water areas.