Study On Information Fusion And Decision-making Methods Of Urban Rail Transit

With the acceleration of the urban social and economic development and urbanizationprocess, there is a sharp increase in urban population, a large number of population floatinto the city, Staff travel and commodity exchange occur frequently,so the situation of theurban traffic is becoming grim. Many large and medium cities of the world have theproblem of road congestion and traffic disorder, the contradiction of the urban traffic ismore and more prominent, which lead to restrict the development of urban economy. Manybig cities at home and abroad have pointed out the development model of urban passengertransport which based on the urban rail transit and public transport in order to address theproblem of urban traffic congestion. But many factors, such as funding, environment,decision-making and policy, are restricting the development of urban rail transit.So it hasimportant practical and theoretical value to study on the urban rail transit system selection,operation scheduling scheme and policy subsidies for losses.Based on the current development of China's urban rail transport, this paper analysedthe degree and the integrity of the information of each subsystem in the urban rail transitsystem, and carried out exploratory research on the theories and methods of urban railtransit system selection, operation scheduling scheme and Policy subsidies for losses. A setof theory and methodology of operational decision-making for urban rail transit which isscientific and systematic was expected to draw to ascertain the subsidies for urban railtransit system and the amount of financial subsidies, to improve the data collectionmethods which can do further data mining and improve the utilization of data, to achievedynamic real-time scheduling in order to improve the efficiency of urban rail transit, toclear the functional position and performance standards of urban rail transit lines and selectthe corresponding system type in order to meet the requirements of urban transportationand make planning decisions of urban rail transit in cities,and to provide the basis fordecision management of the state department. The paper made theoretical exploration anddecision-making method on urban rail transit system selection, Operation schedulingscheme and Policy subsidies for losses by using the theory and techniques of informationfusion. Specific research and innovation results are given in the following:(1) Based on the the theory of information fusion and the information of urban rail transit, This paper pointed out the theoretical system for information fusion of urban railtransit and elaborated the conception,core concept and affiliation of the theoretical system;The information fusion of urban rail transit was divided into three levels: datafusion,feature fusion and decision fusion,then cleared the type of input and output unit foreach level decision-making,and each level has correspnding decision-making: financialsubsidy decisions of urban rail transit based on data fusion, real-time scheduling decisionsof urban rail transport based on feature fusion and type selection decisions of urban railtransit system based on decision fusion.(2) The paper made summary introduction about the main technical indicators ofurban rail transit.data from each system of urban rail transit was collected and fused tocalculate the passenger traffic, the average grid spacing and average distance. Aimed atmaximizing the social welfare, the paper optimized the financial subsidies of urban railtransit according to the decision variables such as the fare, the grid spacing, station spacingand service area, etc. The calculation results showed that break-even financial subsidypolicy was suitable for urban rail transit system to the goal of maximizing social welfare.On this basis, it could be identified that the total waiting time cost of passengers wasconstant fixed social cost by analyzing vehicle operating cost and waiting time cost ofpassengers, and made the decision model of urban rail transit subsidy decision by usingmarginal cost method.Finally analysized the operational data of light rail in ChangChun,and proved that this model played a decision-supporting role of urban rail transit financialsubsidies.(3) By analyzing real-time scheduling decision of urban rail transit, this paper studiedthe essence of real-time scheduling decision and summarized the lack of existing data,methods and techniques.then pointed out the clarity of passengers travel destination pointand TOD to improve the integrity of the original data. New Data collection method andimprovement program to the ticketing system at this stage were given to collect morecomplete travel information of passengers and to achieve real-time scheduling. TOD wasobtained to calculate the correction factor of passenger data by combining OD in thehistorical data and the vehicle running time line according to the basic idea of informationfusion. The paper also obtained the one-way real-time non-uniform departure scheduleswhich would be the basis of vehicle scheduling by making model that aimed at maximizinggrid spacing and used the grid spacing between two cars as variables of the model,meanwhile considered minimum grid spacing, the the maximum waiting time whichpassenger can tolerate and constraint of carriage capacity.(4) System type selection of urban rail transit by introducing the evidence theory could be defined as: by applying probability assignment of a variety of system typesdetermined in each city as evidence, and then combine the evidence by certain rules tomake the integration of urban rail transit system type selection decisions. Based on thereasoning method of the D-S evidence theory, type selection decisions of urban rail transitsystem was defined as the domain, the type of urban rail transit system was defined as theelements on the domain, indicators related to construction decisions of urban rail transitsystem was defined as evidence.Then the evidence was combined to draw the integratedprobability of support functions in order to do decision-making for urban rail transit systemtype selection. So the model of urban rail transit system type selection was made,combination rules which apply to urban rail transit system type selection were elaboratedand solved problems with combination method of evidence.The research of this paper could enrich and expand the theoretical framework andmethodology of operation and development decision-making methods for urban rail transit,and provide the theoretical basis for urban rail transit operations and developmentdecision-making.