The Hong Kong Policy Of The United States: The Decision-making Perspective (1989-2007)

Since 1989, the U.S. has been intervening in the implementation of "One Country, Two Systems" in Hong Kong. Before the return of Hong Kong to China, the U.S. invented special immigration policy for Hong Kong, cared about democratization and human rights progresses and worked out U.S.—Hong Kong Policy Act. After the return, the U.S. has been urging Hong Kong on the way to the democratization of western style, and intervening in the political reform of Hong Kong. Hence arose the Hong Kong issue between China and U.S. On the basis of these historical facts, this paper tries to answer the following two questions: what on earth is U.S. policy-making process? How should we assess the negative influences of U.S. policy upon "One Country, Two Systems"?In order to find out solutions to the two questions, this paper investigates the following determining factors: the evolution of the international system, U.S. domestic politics and the individual characteristics of decision-makers. To be more convenient to operate in analyses, this paper adopts Rational Actor Model in analyzing the international system, introduces Interbranch Politics Model to investigating U.S. domestic politics and makes a survey of decision-makers' styles, beliefs, values and preferences.All the work helps us to find out the following features of U.S. policy to Hong Kong of dual characteristics in international political economy: the Bush Sr. Administration managed to seek a balance between maintaining Sino-US relationship and safeguarding U.S.' interests in Hong Kong when designing U.S.'s policies to Hong Kong; though the Clinton Administration sought the same balance, it attached more importance to safeguarding U.S.' interests in Hong Kong; the Bush Jr. Administration also sought a balance; however, it paid more attention to maintaining Sino-U.S. relationship before 2003 while safeguarding U.S. interests in Hong Kong after 2003. In a word, there are certainties and uncertainties in U.S. policy to Hong Kong. What is certain is that the successive administrations since 1989 have been trying to seek a balance policy. What is uncertain is that the balance is not always stable.Why is U.S.' Hong Kong policy so sophisticated? The Rational Actor Model may explain the certainties, namely, the causes of why the U.S. Administrations since 1989 sought a balance between maintaining Sino-US relationship and safeguarding U.S.' interests in Hong Kong. The Interbranch Politics Model and the individual characteristics of decision-makers may provide solutions to the uncertainties. The former answers why Congress tries to maximize U.S. interests in Hong Kong; the latter explains why some decision-makers focuses on maximizing U.S. interests in Hong Kong and why some focuses on maintaining Sino-U.S. relations. However, any perspective alone cannot explain the decision-making process of U.S. All the three perspectives combined together may give us a comprehensive explanation of U.S' decision-making process.Although the three perspectives explain U.S. Hong Kong policy-making process, there are differences among them. The Rational Actor Model is stronger than the Interbranch Politics Model and the individual characteristics of decision-makers in explaining the Bush Sr. Administration's policy to Hong Kong; therefore, this Administration focused on seeking a balance between maintaining Sino-US relationship and safeguarding U.S.' interests in Hong Kong. The Interbranch Politics Model is stronger than the other two perspectives in explaining Clinton Administration's policy, so this Administration focused on maximizing U.S.' interests in Hong Kong. In Bush Jr. Administration, the individual characteristics is more predominant than the other two, therefore, U.S.' policy is not stable.How should we assess the negative influences of U.S.' policy to Hong Kong? Comparatively speaking, the Clinton Administration exerted the most negative influences to "One Country, Two systems" while the Bush Sr. Administration exerted less negative influences. The Bush Jr. Administration before 2003 exerted much less negative influences; however, after 2003, this Administration exerted the most negative influences. Considering policy intentions and performances, when the U.S. intends to maximize the interests in Hong Kong, the policy results in the most negative influences to "One Country, Two systems"; when the U.S. tries to seek a balance between maintaining Sino-US relationship and safeguarding U.S.' interests in Hong Kong, the policy results in less negative influences; when the U.S. attaches more importance to maintaining Sino-U.S. relations, the policy results in much less negative influences. Finally, considering the three perspective of decision-making, this paper comes to the following conclusions: the policy-making process led by the Interbranch Politics Model brings about the most negative influences to "One Country, Two Systems"; the policy-making process led by the Rational Actor Model brings about less negative influences; the policy-making process led by the individual characteristics results in instable policy; when the policy-makers attach more importance to Sino-U.S. relations, the policy-making process brings about much less negative influences; however, when the policy-makers focuses on maximizing U.S.' interest in Hong Kong, the policy-making process brings about the most negative influences.